Beijing Statistics Bureau, National Bureau of Statistics recently released data show that in August in Beijing housing sales price index was 108.9%, or more than in July dropped 1.3 percentage points; chain prices were flat last month for the first time this year, stopped up. the face of the real estate market this year to all the variables, all the industry people in respect of a current trend of China's economy is indeed weakening, the real estate down there. but as the property market into a period of adjustment, the central bank cut Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and other mainland tier cities will house a few years to catch up with Hong Kong, the debate of these international cities. whether the current price trend should be how to objectively judge? the next few years in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, the mainland line whether the city's rapid rise in house prices and catch up with some big cities of the potential power of high prices? more rational analysis of how various factors affect the price?
current guests:
Feng Division of Peking University Director of the Center of the real estate finance economy
He Jianya deputy general manager of China Merchants Property Development Co., Ltd. Jia Wolong
Pacific Investment Advisory Co., Ltd. Chief Executive Officer of Hong Kong
Zhang Kunyu Beijing general manager of Zhongyuan Real Estate Investment Advisor < br> Host:
correspondents Yao Yanyan
perspective highlights:
Feng Section: Fluctuation of prices to match the macroeconomic development, just as the owner and the dog in the street, like Liu Wan - Macroeconomics is the owner, the price is dog, the dog may be running in front of the owner may also be followed with the master, but as long as the Master gives a call, the dog will be returned to the owner side; the same is true of housing prices, by macroeconomic constraints, if more than or backward will affect the overall development, and will certainly return to the owner to adjust the pace up. the more central city of a country more than the non-central city's economic development better, with more cities business opportunities and economic development potential, thus boosting the housing market boom.
(omit the other point of view)
inevitable adjustment
Moderator: one side is heard one after another decline in home sales prices, the national housing boom Index reveal the significant downturn in the real estate market downturn such as news, while the central bank lowered the How should rationally determine the current property market situation and price trend of the development problem?
von subjects: prices and the real estate market itself is a very complex issue, in fact, we all want to have a healthy development of the market, but reality often can not fully do so. since last August and September when we had started to predict the property market will experience a period of adjustment, and require at least 15 months, but look at the current overall situation, this estimate somewhat conservative.
from the current sales point of view, January to September last year, only one-third of the total, so now more annoying problem is not the price, but sales of the problem, how it can better Housing for sale will be sold in order to achieve the real estate development process.
drop in home prices is inevitable, but there is still a drop space, is expected to end are not going to clear. real estate the market either do not adjust, once the adjustment will be a long process, at least two or three years time to Huanguo Lai.
(omit the other point of view)
up and not rising, see
Moderator: experience After this round of adjustment over the future of China's rapid rise in house prices will again experienced on? to understand what aspects should determine the trend of the future?
Feng Section: Fluctuation of prices to match the macroeconomic development Some people have compared the relationship between the two main people and dogs - is the master of macroeconomic, price is a little dog. just as the owner with a dog in the street, like Liu Wan, dog owners may be running in front of may also be back with the owner,UGG shoes, but as long as the Master gives a call,Discount UGG boots, the dog will be returned to the owner side; and prices the same is true, by the macro-economic constraints, when the GDP growth of 15% growth in house prices can not exceed the figures, and maintained at 12% -15%, and if more than, it will be back, otherwise it will collapse; Similarly, if the macroeconomic downturn, people's purchasing power decline, the industry's slump has led to lack of confidence to buy a house, resulting in decline in house prices will undermine the entire market, will finally be adjusted back to the macroeconomic development in harmony with the pace up, it is economic law.
(omit the other point of view)
reference Hong Kong
Moderator: It should be said, such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, including the first-tier cities in the Mainland in the past some time towards the representatives of housing, whether last year's rapid rise, or fall since the momentum of this year, with the respective city closely related to the development, specifically how to analyze these first-tier cities in the Mainland real estate market? international city like Hong Kong, the formation of their high prices What are the factors? mainland tier cities have in common with them, and the same have the potential for higher prices?
von subjects: the more central city of a country more than the non-central city's economic development and real estate market better, which is indisputable, the central city with more business opportunities and economic development potential,UGG bailey button, which is relatively remote city is difficult to have. from the specific point of view the city of Shenzhen in the current price level stable, but to take back to last year's high of more time, because from the city itself, does not provide such a large development opportunities; Shanghai and Shenzhen, somewhat similar, especially in the earlier time has been in 2005 led the state, and some prices have been as high as 20,000 yuan / square meter, now at 15,000 / sqm and 2.5 million / sq m of steady state, the international metropolis of Shanghai has a significant position on the Yangtze River Delta and the country as a whole are important, their financial and tertiary industry developed rapidly, white-collar workers people more purchasing power, so significant price volatility appears to be significantly less likely.
Beijing's situation is relatively unique, because it is the capital, is the political and cultural center,UGG boots cheap, the changing situation in the country in recent years, when Local rights are attributed to the central tightening after Beijing's various opportunities such as business opportunities will be more than the other cities to promote the flow of Beijing is more influx of large numbers of people, and promote economic development in Beijing. Beijing's real estate market will through a period of adjustment, but short compared to other cities, is expected within two years to enter the steady state, maintained at the level in 2007 -2008. If this economy is not down a few years time, and be able to accelerate the development of various industrial, technical content upgrade, then the next round of economic cycle vertices, the property market will once again usher in 高涨.
international city like Hong Kong, was more far-reaching influence of Western culture, but also because of its market economy perfect, more free trade, and legal system is relatively sound and finance the development of more advanced, the tax is relatively low, making it more competitive to attract a lot of investor attention, so as to continuously push up prices. But in recent years in Hong Kong the status of international trade and the advantage has been gradually declining, the domestic cities such as Shanghai is the continuous rise in exports, with economic development, the future may one day synchronized with the development of Hong Kong, but to say to the house itself, or a certain distance.
(omit other points)
demand and growth
Moderator: On the issue prices, the industry there has been lively discussion of the sound, some say, in fact, is not Beijing's rigid demand strong population growth will not push up housing prices in Beijing; a rigid view is that strong demand in Beijing, especially in the Olympics and the overall economic development driven by the influx of a large number of flow will cause another round of higher prices, we should how to understand these statements? how to understand a city's housing prices and the relationship between the income of urban residents?
von Branch: Beijing's population growth in the city itself is actually very slow, due to its slow population growth, rising cost of living so that the purchase of local demand is relatively weak, but in recent years, we really can see the changes in the economic situation in Beijing has been more and more influx of foreign population, support from the huge purchasing power of the real estate market in Beijing, But one thing we must be clear, this is a dynamic and complex process, if not centralized in Beijing, people's needs will be correspondingly weakened, but if the system can be sustained on to promote the continuous flow of people into, the housing demand will be endless.
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to catch up with Hong Kong if
Moderator: Imagine a front line so to the cities in the Mainland as Hong Kong house prices in the big cities shoulder to shoulder, what will be situation? this situation and will give the industry the impact of China's economic development?
Feng Section: From the real estate market itself, should not take house prices catch up with some of the world when the target level of developed cities , instead of moving the actual macroeconomic developments. next if the continued rise in house prices, the government must think carefully the direction of urban development, on balance to be adjusted accordingly; and developers are in high market prices, the ability to business costs will continue to have sufficient land for development to take, and some disadvantaged businesses can not afford the cost pressure will gradually be eliminated.
(omit the other point of view)
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