Mm for the Eagle Club charity Friends of the families of the victims Mountain ,UGGs
August 7, 2002, Peking University Eagle Club mountaineers climbing the peak of Tibet Shisha process, the five members of misfortune avalanche, the two killed and three missing. August 19,UGG boots, six members of a successful search and rescue teams arrived at the scene to find three members of the body, and concluded that two other members buried in the deeper snow layers. So far OK, North climbers avalanche, killing all five players.
They are: Lei Yu, Lin Li Qing, Yang Lei, Lu Zhen, Zhang Xingbo.
killed five young people,bailey UGG boots, to their own family, brought great misfortune and pain. As our fellow climbers, to express the grief of the victims and relatives of the victims concerned,Bailey UGG boots, sympathy sentiment, after communication with the North Eagle Club, in which we are faithful to the issue of charity fund-raising initiatives Mountain: < br> sale items:
coaches autographs, they are: the National Mountaineering Team leader Dr. Ma Xinxiang; Muztagata Chinese climbers in 2002 captain, who climb the world's highest peak Mount Qomolangma, the national mountaineering team plays off the coach; has world's highest peak Mount Everest climb , the Tibet Mountaineering Team Niagara coach; Qinghai Mountaineering Association Jingyang coach.
commemorative T shirt without signature.
the 80 T-shirt, could have been specially designed for this year's national climbers climb Muztagata for Shenzhen Mountaineering Club climbers directed production, highly collectible. Mountain in North Greece is difficult after the incident, to communicate with the national team, climbing club decided to come to a charity sale.
sale objectives:
Sale shall mean: the cost per net ¥ 30.00 (including production costs and transportation costs) of premium.
expected to be received ¥ 5600.00, as the climbers to the families of the victims of Beijing University funds.
buy sale items way:
mountaineering club commissioned the Appropriation:
sale is completed, will amount to the North Eagle Club, handed over by them on behalf of the families of the victims. charity money will be allocated in the want the support of the majority of climbers!
Tuesday, November 9, 2010
Monday, November 8, 2010
In dry skin care set (in dry skin apply)
In dry skin care set (in dry skin apply)
dry skin, lack of sebum secretion, and normal skin care without long-term science and its sebum film is also very easily destroyed. Once the sebum membrane damage,UGG shoes, not only function to reduce moisture,UGG bailey button, and the skin will become dry,UGG boots, itching, peeling or even on the hot and cold,cheap UGG boots, touch and pressure of the defense followed suit less easily cause swelling, local redness and so on. This suit all skin care Like skin products and a weak acid, can fully cleaning, conditioning, nourishing your skin.
dry skin, lack of sebum secretion, and normal skin care without long-term science and its sebum film is also very easily destroyed. Once the sebum membrane damage,UGG shoes, not only function to reduce moisture,UGG bailey button, and the skin will become dry,UGG boots, itching, peeling or even on the hot and cold,cheap UGG boots, touch and pressure of the defense followed suit less easily cause swelling, local redness and so on. This suit all skin care Like skin products and a weak acid, can fully cleaning, conditioning, nourishing your skin.
Sunday, November 7, 2010
Big States dress PK Olympics
China
saw this dress, did not want to say,UGG boots, Oh great PK to see a comparison online do not really know the general ugly, how that so uncomfortable wearing the white hat ah!
Spain
people Spain is also wearing a hat, the color is red and yellow, looking more refined than in China, but also design sense, but also Spanish characteristics, and most importantly,UGG boots cheap, people still wear Li Ning brand it,UGGs, ha ha does not appear in China No designer!
looked very elegant French
, especially that female models, and tie a belt, it is very French style girl.
Australia more formal bar and feeling of their country like, blue
Russia is white hat, but at least we can not say very good and see the fine points
than the Chinese people but also Asian countries, Korea is also wearing a suit, how to look for more of it than the Chinese foreign flavor < br> Germany was a very strict sense of their country is also very simple and elegant color
Greek Mediterranean feel that the collar is also very unique Chinese characteristics
not holding the two pieces of red cloth with yellow cloth hard, looking to find uncomfortable. do not say that there is no national feeling,UGG shoes, coupled with the white hat ...
a middle-aged tour throughout!
saw this dress, did not want to say,UGG boots, Oh great PK to see a comparison online do not really know the general ugly, how that so uncomfortable wearing the white hat ah!
Spain
people Spain is also wearing a hat, the color is red and yellow, looking more refined than in China, but also design sense, but also Spanish characteristics, and most importantly,UGG boots cheap, people still wear Li Ning brand it,UGGs, ha ha does not appear in China No designer!
looked very elegant French
, especially that female models, and tie a belt, it is very French style girl.
Australia more formal bar and feeling of their country like, blue
Russia is white hat, but at least we can not say very good and see the fine points
than the Chinese people but also Asian countries, Korea is also wearing a suit, how to look for more of it than the Chinese foreign flavor < br> Germany was a very strict sense of their country is also very simple and elegant color
Greek Mediterranean feel that the collar is also very unique Chinese characteristics
not holding the two pieces of red cloth with yellow cloth hard, looking to find uncomfortable. do not say that there is no national feeling,UGG shoes, coupled with the white hat ...
a middle-aged tour throughout!
Thursday, November 4, 2010
Twelve horoscope
Pisces Gregorian 2 19 - March 20 Pisces born in the fall to winter, between the constellations seen in the top of the head to the east, the sign it as a symbol of two fish. Pisces is ruled by the
humans because of the great dreams, Pisces because of the dream was growing up. You pure goodness, and helpful, whenever people need your help, you will not only lend a helping hand, but also attach a lot of love! Learning to help others before their own ability to measure whether the permit, if necessary, said, Pisces, because personality is relatively weak, not strong, so sometimes too honest, vulnerable to other people into trouble. Because the relationship between personality, he is not dared to refuse the trust of others things, so often the case in the knowledge was not being involved in incidents. Watching someone else's face often change their attitude and thus, we can see he is a man without self-confidence. As a more sensitive nature, so easy to fall into serious setbacks Zhimaxiaoshi into, or which cause depression. Talented, like fantasy. By Lai Xinjiang, can adapt to different environments and positions. Is rich in creativity and artistic talent, indulge in the plot and poetic dream, that true happiness is the spiritual body of the world combined. Select from the earthly life, the material will not have much success. Sympathetic, self-sacrifice, the spirit of compassion in society, especially the weak and unfortunate.
a good observation, insight and common sense, ability to learn very fast, very good memory, but also flexible and imaginative, like daydreaming, enjoy the whimsy of the state, also have good reasoning ability, like to travel and be comfortable. Born with a kind, generous, compassion, patience, and conservative temperament. The words of others is very sensitive to the attitude of the people around is no different. Nature of peace, extremely sensitive, angry and perverse tendency to be troubled by the nervous system. If we can overcome the conservative
habits, the feelings are very straightforward, affectionate and considerate person you love, but beware of irrational jealousy. Nature need to get attention and dear, if not then vulnerable to deep injury. In love, very sensitive, romantic fantasy, and unrealistic ideals will make you greatly disappointed.
Pisces people are warm hearted, affectionate, and loved romantic atmosphere. Very friendly to anyone, it is easy to put into the arms of others, trust others. See other people hurt, often forget their ability to work for others, Auntie, easy to believe others do for others, but also want to get a good impression on others, if the other side too realistic for you, destroy your dreams and hope, you will feel dissatisfied with a large against injustice. Generous nature and compassion, will be a lot of friends, these are spiritual and intelligent, loyal friend, willing to sacrifice themselves to help friends. Character is very inclined to sympathize with other people, sensitive and rich intuitive. Individual alertness, mental strength are particularly sensitive, with a vivid imagination, and easy to accept the hint, easily affected by others.
the seat full of idealistic people, but also to take practical approach. Fill deep compassion for others, but often appear shy and modest attitude of interest, lack of confidence in their own, with a special love and harmonious nature, and enjoy home life.
Aries (Gregorian March 21 - 4 19 born persons) is located in Aries from late autumn to early autumn, a little south of the sky on a constellation. Symbol used to indicate the sheep's horn. Aries is ruled by the
Aries character, every word can be Whether for anything, will go all out, Aries's horn is used to illustrate the personality. Aries people, filled with a sense of justice, and strong action, and often can lead others to express their frank opinions, cheerful and encourage colleagues and the trust and respect by others. In addition, the Aries person. Do not want to stay in a rut, stick to bad habits, his thoughts are on the cutting edge of innovation in school. Therefore, it would be more patience, there is impatience, good strong tendency. A high degree of tolerance, there is no fear of hard fighting instinct and willpower. Once you have good hearts, will be able to surmount every difficulty to forge ahead. In the new environment, can play a pioneer spirit, leaders take the lead, open up a new machine, quite the style of leadership. There are also side of the aggression, the greatest joy is to overcome all difficulties, so that the difficult things into orbit.
Aries people is a will, courage, determination, mobility, planning, leadership, is the leader of the masses of people standing in the leadership. Has a sense of adventure ahead, and actively forward the spirit of a pioneering, can take all the new concepts, but also s ambitious, but also has the courage and practical action to realize their personal will. But few loose ends to complete the transaction you created.
who has a positive mobile Aries personality, life, personal, social, economic decisions on all aspects of his personal mental and emotional performance. Passionate sense of justice is full of people, bright and lively, with charming manners and good mental ability, like a respected, good at diplomacy, with the spirit of adventure and enterprise, hobby activities, and his friendly, chivalrous heart, generosity temperament.
like action, is frank type, do not want to home in the quiet, joy around, hate to be bound, and active thinking, imagination, there are intuitive, can be predicted that inspired a rich, warm mental activity, but easy to rough action, and easy to do things on impulse.
Taurus (Gregorian April 20 - May 20 born), Taurus is seen in the sky at night in the winter south of the constellation. Taurus symbol, symbolic head of cattle, and its ruler, the
like a cow Taurus personality, attitude stability and attitude of life very seriously, but on the other hand is also very stubborn, as long as one loses his temper, often no one can stop it. Taurus people, often smiling, not meddling, it will not destroy others live in peace, can be considered to be fairly sophisticated social expert. In his mind, filled with an intensity not a good psychological defeat,UGG bailey button, once loses his temper, it reveals the violent side of unimaginable, often surprised that people around. Moderate and strong personality, temperament calm and at ease. Although hesitant of things, but once decided, will be able to perseverance, perseverance to move forward. Patient and strong, to act cautiously, but there are stubborn side. Entrusted by the people shall be the sole property of loyalty and will never give up halfway. Possessive, comparative pursuit of material satisfaction, and adhere to the degree of perfection of things, is an artistic design and horticulture are very talented people. Man humor, funny, and often can be friends of all ages.
Taurus people have a natural aesthetic sense, like the beautiful and practical objects. Honest, gentle, sincere, reliable, obedient, trustworthy person is someone else, have the courage to have patience, determination and a determination, imaginative and innovative thinking on economic matters, robust and reliable manner, also good at saving.
gives the impression of a quiet, honest, stable, introverted, more negative style of work, but humane, very careful work, and certainly stress methods, ability to do our best, there are the advantages of patience is Taurus . On the one hand there is stubborn, selfish, bad temper, more lazy, likes luxury vanity, self-indulgence of the shortcomings. Verbal or written communication to express, seem stiff and the reaction is not very sensitive.
love strong, but there are exclusive unique ingredients. Usually like a quiet home life and the heart and kindness and affection. Can be a loyal and satisfied married couples. Is to concentrate on doing what they have learned, do not overlook the details, so take a long time, is the time to really understand that people might think you're slow to learn, but you have to remember what they have learned is that persistent than others. A determination, a matter of interest some to learn that there is sufficient imagination and innovative thinking, which can improve your work, and help you succeed.
like beautiful things, such as food, luxury goods, but also enjoy the arts and fine arts. Taurus people are not so mentally active, but has a wealth of general knowledge and practical, neither is the idealist who will not be a dream, but the bit cautious and steady enthusiasm of people, not the wish of any something for nothing, just continued efforts in the cause to achieve the proper results. Practical step by step until the target date to reach, so you will eventually get solid fruits of success.
Gemini (Gregorian May 21 - 6 21 born persons) Gemini is from winter to spring, between the east coast in the Galaxy, a constellation. Gemini's twin brother, symbols, and its ruler, the
Geminis, the biggest feature in character is a very keen observation. Gemini people, very smart craft, in every respect as able to show their talents. But on the other hand, it made everything know everything, but everything is not fine defects. Curiosity, and desire to constantly absorb new knowledge, Geminis will keep young and charming, making many friends around around him. Personalized sharp and fast. Have a strong curiosity and thirst for knowledge, for new ideas and new popular feeling very sharp. Smart witty, eloquent, is a strategist and speaker. Failing to be able to properly correspond to calm observation, bold and have to play. And often there will be some whim of ideas, there is a bold assumption, carefully verify the personality.
Gemini personality is the temper of a cynical attitude toward the artist, the other character is a clear social house, Gemini will make this dual character of the people who live in contradiction, like fantasy, and easy to meet the day in contemplation and dream. However, inspired and imaginative, the actual occurrence of this constellation have a lot of writers, the new artistic creator, inventor, composer and so on. Potential advantages of artistic ability, disadvantage is the tendency to delay, selfish, do not care about other people's feelings and thoughts, nervousness, get along well and so on.
Gemini people have a wide range of talent, the fast and powerful, intuitive and proactive, do not worry, a happy and lively, clever and changeable. Kind words eloquent, thought unique, strong imagination, a sense of humor, good observation and insight, full of wit. Appearance is very enthusiastic, but the heart is cold.
like having two careers, two romances, like the richly varied life, like frequent travel. Of different environments has great resilience, good timing is right. Comparison of this constellation are controlled by reason, not easy to emotional, and very little experience of deep love.
Cancer (Gregorian 6 21 - July 22 Cancer is born in the spring night, there was a slight bias south of the signs. symbol is represented by the crab's claws. Cancer is ruled by the moon It is indeed incredible. Cancer of the response is not slow, on the contrary, he's feeling very keen, often due to damage by careless people, secretly secretly sad tears. as the result of careful consideration too. So be too realistic . too obvious feelings of likes and dislikes, we should pay more attention to do. feeling rich, strong susceptibility of things. Foreign pro-, and humility, quite public awareness, but internally there is a strong defensive instincts are reluctant to interfere with his private life. general is a mild introvert, but will not bow to evil forces. eager to participate in love family, love village, caring community, a strong sense of self, respect for the people to protect their positions, with nostalgia, is a very traditional man.
Cancer person is more conservative, can enjoy the fun and make friends, not selfishness or vanity, to be frank, generous, honest, loyal friends, and personal beliefs, can be entrusted with important duties or work in secret . have a good comprehension and powers of observation, like meditation, is very attentive, eager to analyze their own thoughts and impulses, is very active imagination, likes to meditate on what happened in the past, to analyze their own inner impulses, there is excellent intuitive, there is a sensitive baby, but the conservative heart, do not often reveal the truth, gentle, considerate, loving, value love, beloved people he loves and has a tendency to jealousy, like children. is a romantic type, but , sometimes absent-minded, mutable.
an active type and negative type of two types. active type who has a strong will power and endurance, the gateway to life, life is very skilled, and favorite activities can catch up with the times, for modern pop feel interested in anything. passive type of person, seems easy to self-sufficiency, listless, lazy behavior, do not want to do any work necessary to success, like the submissive, very stubborn is also attached to his already own, these two types are trained early on with the enlightenment.
this constellation, it is very sensitive, often criticized by malicious people to feel sad criticism. For the past all are remembered and sentimental, very few partners to abandon the old friendship with the former. like the collection of ancient works of art or books, but also like to remember those fun. usually has a good memory.
Leo (Gregorian 7 23 - born August 22) Leo is seen in the sky at night in the spring south of the signs. it symbolizes the heart of a lion and the tail. the ruler, Law will be properly cared for each other. As Leo, born with the temperament of the king, so do also understand the pain of others. But sometimes he like to forget the loneliness and hypocrisy in general, and being obsessed with pleasure. due to have a temper hot-tempered, stubborn, and unwilling to compromise the character, so this point is that Leo people need special attention. they are honest, quite dignified. like to own charm and ability to create a place in the world, and dedicated to a position of authority. doing things with go all the way open and above board, disgust despicable villain acts. there acting talent, self-confident, almost narcissistic. On the other hand, due to generous heart, since to attract the masses. However, about their emotions easily, often feel lonely.
Leo impulsive personality, passion, honesty and loyalty, high ideals, solemn and great sense of humor, fun nature, will attract many people, the people are very polite and considerate. generous, impatient, will not bear grudges for too long, a lively imagination, broad interests, talkative, good reasoning and ability to judge, but also creativity, leadership, life passion, impulse, moving style and artistic talent , performing talent, personality clear, fair and square, imposing, bold self-confidence, enthusiasm, love, is a leading figure. but there are also selfish, arrogant, irritable, moody, vanity, waste and other shortcomings. a bustling side, there are dark , lonely, lonely side.
haughty disposition, a kind of aristocratic temperament, noble and generous heart, naturally do not want the dirty secret aggrieved self-esteem to do, or do mean things. You trust in others, also requires others take the absolute trust of your attitude. you like to be someone else's faith, like the master authority. hard work, but do not want to live to be under the jurisdiction of the position. repetitive and monotonous things for bored, do not like complex trivial details. Leo, in general very strong, with a deep ambition and the tyrannical. the challenge to others, you are above board and fair, never take Yinsi response.
the people of this Block have sufficient self-confidence, and self-belief. but also requires to be praised, very conceited, think they own all the best in the world. like the emotional heart of the bets will be shown love frank . and adventurous nature, the pursuit of ideals to face any danger encountered.
Virgo (solar calendar August 23 - 9 months 22 born persons) Virgo has emerged from the spring in summer A little sign on the south sky. Just as the symbol of purity imposed virgin hair. ruler as the br>
Virgo, it first became apparent, with pure, clean freak, and sense of justice. Virgos are the most annoying thing is unreasonable. His nerves were more sensitive, that some Zhimaxiaoshi also thoughtful . Virgo person is not deliberately look for someone else's trouble, but his love of nature will have to pick holes in the habit, so often not the truth. This is one of the greatest Virgo shortcomings should be addressed. Virgin Block, who, if able to have the strong natural curiosity and a keen sensibility cooperate with each other in pursuit of higher ideals, we can create the extraordinary career. man diligent, meticulous, and like with the society, to act to take reasonable doctrine It is a great contributions to society people. considerate of others, work efficiency has commanding presence, but sometimes overly cautious, but unable to grasp the outline, but in general is a project people, and always in a conscience. more in the minds of personality, full of critical spirit, easily become a sharp critic. has strong moral values.
Virgos are hardworking, practical, prudent, honest and reliable, helpful nature, there are diplomatic skills, grooming and attractive, about dress, independent thinking and observation. also have excellent analytical skills and quick comprehension.
love meditation, very diligent, very much reading, the mind is the wisdom and knowledge are stored, and the analysis of strong and suitable for scientific research. but also has a broad definition of the brains and superior intelligence, to become a smart politician. with a good understanding of the nature and easily moved, kindness compassion, emotional sensitivity and conservative, the overall attention to detail overlooked easily understood the overall situation, with a spirit of service. inborn love neat and precise,UGGs, likes the pure. a sentimental, melancholy tendencies. full of inspiration and intuition to understand the lively personality and motivation of others , modest man, not competition with others, look like a negative, in fact, is the steadfast determination and pragmatism. has shown signs of not drive, but the attitude is very careful to do things according to their conscience, to keep order.
attitude of the actual wealth but also down to earth, with a special smart, capable and diligent workers, good memory, perception of power is also strong, but also has carefully wit, after graduation have the habit of learning, will continue to absorb the spiritual food, good critical judgments, like the analysis, but tend to find fault is easy.
Libra (Gregorian 9 23 - born October 22, Libra is seen in the night in the summer Milky Way constellation west, the constellation of Libra, the sign just as summer levy two plates, Libra, ruled by the a very balanced state, which is Libra's personality. to live together, the probable timely and telling jokes, to grasp the harmony site. In general, Libra is the ordinary people's lives and happiness. Libras will always will not hurt to keep the smooth and slick, smooth manner, so the heart does not like to show the truth. personalized sound and sensible. have a good sense of balance and impartiality, good coordination, in the opposite opinion can often take on mediation responsibility. everything emphasis on logic and strategy, definitely not of violence to resolve things, but by clever wrist, in the other's rights and interests to find the balance. cool lake not indecisive, smooth and slick, quite social talent, easily Bode in positions of providence and courtesy.
Libra people have a balanced mind and body attractive, charming personality, attractive, pleasant and elegant, a woman is beautiful, man is handsome. nature, passionate, gentle, kind, compassion, warm, generous, loyal, a impressionable personality. cherish harmony pleasant living environment, approachable, romantic idealism, sociable, elegant. but on the other hand, there are selfish, willful, irritable, impulsive, fickle drawbacks.
have a strong thirst for knowledge, insight, imagination, and intuitive, natural and expressive, and ask others to give a warm and appreciative response. No hi dispute, there is a tendency to evasive, but indecision, suspense shortcomings,Discount UGG boots, optimistic by nature, like their friends. There intuitive and understand human nature, perspective other people's motives. chorus can control the performance of a rational method feelings are not as excited with the cool and clever way to express feelings.
charming personality brought about by too many friends and acquaintances. resonate with the heart strong, compassionate and heavy feelings, attitude towards others just and good. is to understand the feelings of others, is due to inner peace and love, with friends and family around to keep a harmonious relationship, tend to seek to share the happiness of marriage partner, but also the love of the unusual the concept of beauty and aesthetics, there is a sense of balance, line and color of the trial do not feel particularly good strength.
you like all fair dealing. too sophisticated and skilled in the measure,Bailey UGG boots, so that when the temporary things need to determine under indecisive. Instrumentation attitude is very elegant, but pay attention to courtesy, to the heterosexual love life, with a noble development, detailed and balanced performance, there will be a harmonious sexual relationship
humans because of the great dreams, Pisces because of the dream was growing up. You pure goodness, and helpful, whenever people need your help, you will not only lend a helping hand, but also attach a lot of love! Learning to help others before their own ability to measure whether the permit, if necessary, said, Pisces, because personality is relatively weak, not strong, so sometimes too honest, vulnerable to other people into trouble. Because the relationship between personality, he is not dared to refuse the trust of others things, so often the case in the knowledge was not being involved in incidents. Watching someone else's face often change their attitude and thus, we can see he is a man without self-confidence. As a more sensitive nature, so easy to fall into serious setbacks Zhimaxiaoshi into, or which cause depression. Talented, like fantasy. By Lai Xinjiang, can adapt to different environments and positions. Is rich in creativity and artistic talent, indulge in the plot and poetic dream, that true happiness is the spiritual body of the world combined. Select from the earthly life, the material will not have much success. Sympathetic, self-sacrifice, the spirit of compassion in society, especially the weak and unfortunate.
a good observation, insight and common sense, ability to learn very fast, very good memory, but also flexible and imaginative, like daydreaming, enjoy the whimsy of the state, also have good reasoning ability, like to travel and be comfortable. Born with a kind, generous, compassion, patience, and conservative temperament. The words of others is very sensitive to the attitude of the people around is no different. Nature of peace, extremely sensitive, angry and perverse tendency to be troubled by the nervous system. If we can overcome the conservative
habits, the feelings are very straightforward, affectionate and considerate person you love, but beware of irrational jealousy. Nature need to get attention and dear, if not then vulnerable to deep injury. In love, very sensitive, romantic fantasy, and unrealistic ideals will make you greatly disappointed.
Pisces people are warm hearted, affectionate, and loved romantic atmosphere. Very friendly to anyone, it is easy to put into the arms of others, trust others. See other people hurt, often forget their ability to work for others, Auntie, easy to believe others do for others, but also want to get a good impression on others, if the other side too realistic for you, destroy your dreams and hope, you will feel dissatisfied with a large against injustice. Generous nature and compassion, will be a lot of friends, these are spiritual and intelligent, loyal friend, willing to sacrifice themselves to help friends. Character is very inclined to sympathize with other people, sensitive and rich intuitive. Individual alertness, mental strength are particularly sensitive, with a vivid imagination, and easy to accept the hint, easily affected by others.
the seat full of idealistic people, but also to take practical approach. Fill deep compassion for others, but often appear shy and modest attitude of interest, lack of confidence in their own, with a special love and harmonious nature, and enjoy home life.
Aries (Gregorian March 21 - 4 19 born persons) is located in Aries from late autumn to early autumn, a little south of the sky on a constellation. Symbol used to indicate the sheep's horn. Aries is ruled by the
Aries character, every word can be Whether for anything, will go all out, Aries's horn is used to illustrate the personality. Aries people, filled with a sense of justice, and strong action, and often can lead others to express their frank opinions, cheerful and encourage colleagues and the trust and respect by others. In addition, the Aries person. Do not want to stay in a rut, stick to bad habits, his thoughts are on the cutting edge of innovation in school. Therefore, it would be more patience, there is impatience, good strong tendency. A high degree of tolerance, there is no fear of hard fighting instinct and willpower. Once you have good hearts, will be able to surmount every difficulty to forge ahead. In the new environment, can play a pioneer spirit, leaders take the lead, open up a new machine, quite the style of leadership. There are also side of the aggression, the greatest joy is to overcome all difficulties, so that the difficult things into orbit.
Aries people is a will, courage, determination, mobility, planning, leadership, is the leader of the masses of people standing in the leadership. Has a sense of adventure ahead, and actively forward the spirit of a pioneering, can take all the new concepts, but also s ambitious, but also has the courage and practical action to realize their personal will. But few loose ends to complete the transaction you created.
who has a positive mobile Aries personality, life, personal, social, economic decisions on all aspects of his personal mental and emotional performance. Passionate sense of justice is full of people, bright and lively, with charming manners and good mental ability, like a respected, good at diplomacy, with the spirit of adventure and enterprise, hobby activities, and his friendly, chivalrous heart, generosity temperament.
like action, is frank type, do not want to home in the quiet, joy around, hate to be bound, and active thinking, imagination, there are intuitive, can be predicted that inspired a rich, warm mental activity, but easy to rough action, and easy to do things on impulse.
Taurus (Gregorian April 20 - May 20 born), Taurus is seen in the sky at night in the winter south of the constellation. Taurus symbol, symbolic head of cattle, and its ruler, the
like a cow Taurus personality, attitude stability and attitude of life very seriously, but on the other hand is also very stubborn, as long as one loses his temper, often no one can stop it. Taurus people, often smiling, not meddling, it will not destroy others live in peace, can be considered to be fairly sophisticated social expert. In his mind, filled with an intensity not a good psychological defeat,UGG bailey button, once loses his temper, it reveals the violent side of unimaginable, often surprised that people around. Moderate and strong personality, temperament calm and at ease. Although hesitant of things, but once decided, will be able to perseverance, perseverance to move forward. Patient and strong, to act cautiously, but there are stubborn side. Entrusted by the people shall be the sole property of loyalty and will never give up halfway. Possessive, comparative pursuit of material satisfaction, and adhere to the degree of perfection of things, is an artistic design and horticulture are very talented people. Man humor, funny, and often can be friends of all ages.
Taurus people have a natural aesthetic sense, like the beautiful and practical objects. Honest, gentle, sincere, reliable, obedient, trustworthy person is someone else, have the courage to have patience, determination and a determination, imaginative and innovative thinking on economic matters, robust and reliable manner, also good at saving.
gives the impression of a quiet, honest, stable, introverted, more negative style of work, but humane, very careful work, and certainly stress methods, ability to do our best, there are the advantages of patience is Taurus . On the one hand there is stubborn, selfish, bad temper, more lazy, likes luxury vanity, self-indulgence of the shortcomings. Verbal or written communication to express, seem stiff and the reaction is not very sensitive.
love strong, but there are exclusive unique ingredients. Usually like a quiet home life and the heart and kindness and affection. Can be a loyal and satisfied married couples. Is to concentrate on doing what they have learned, do not overlook the details, so take a long time, is the time to really understand that people might think you're slow to learn, but you have to remember what they have learned is that persistent than others. A determination, a matter of interest some to learn that there is sufficient imagination and innovative thinking, which can improve your work, and help you succeed.
like beautiful things, such as food, luxury goods, but also enjoy the arts and fine arts. Taurus people are not so mentally active, but has a wealth of general knowledge and practical, neither is the idealist who will not be a dream, but the bit cautious and steady enthusiasm of people, not the wish of any something for nothing, just continued efforts in the cause to achieve the proper results. Practical step by step until the target date to reach, so you will eventually get solid fruits of success.
Gemini (Gregorian May 21 - 6 21 born persons) Gemini is from winter to spring, between the east coast in the Galaxy, a constellation. Gemini's twin brother, symbols, and its ruler, the
Geminis, the biggest feature in character is a very keen observation. Gemini people, very smart craft, in every respect as able to show their talents. But on the other hand, it made everything know everything, but everything is not fine defects. Curiosity, and desire to constantly absorb new knowledge, Geminis will keep young and charming, making many friends around around him. Personalized sharp and fast. Have a strong curiosity and thirst for knowledge, for new ideas and new popular feeling very sharp. Smart witty, eloquent, is a strategist and speaker. Failing to be able to properly correspond to calm observation, bold and have to play. And often there will be some whim of ideas, there is a bold assumption, carefully verify the personality.
Gemini personality is the temper of a cynical attitude toward the artist, the other character is a clear social house, Gemini will make this dual character of the people who live in contradiction, like fantasy, and easy to meet the day in contemplation and dream. However, inspired and imaginative, the actual occurrence of this constellation have a lot of writers, the new artistic creator, inventor, composer and so on. Potential advantages of artistic ability, disadvantage is the tendency to delay, selfish, do not care about other people's feelings and thoughts, nervousness, get along well and so on.
Gemini people have a wide range of talent, the fast and powerful, intuitive and proactive, do not worry, a happy and lively, clever and changeable. Kind words eloquent, thought unique, strong imagination, a sense of humor, good observation and insight, full of wit. Appearance is very enthusiastic, but the heart is cold.
like having two careers, two romances, like the richly varied life, like frequent travel. Of different environments has great resilience, good timing is right. Comparison of this constellation are controlled by reason, not easy to emotional, and very little experience of deep love.
Cancer (Gregorian 6 21 - July 22 Cancer is born in the spring night, there was a slight bias south of the signs. symbol is represented by the crab's claws. Cancer is ruled by the moon It is indeed incredible. Cancer of the response is not slow, on the contrary, he's feeling very keen, often due to damage by careless people, secretly secretly sad tears. as the result of careful consideration too. So be too realistic . too obvious feelings of likes and dislikes, we should pay more attention to do. feeling rich, strong susceptibility of things. Foreign pro-, and humility, quite public awareness, but internally there is a strong defensive instincts are reluctant to interfere with his private life. general is a mild introvert, but will not bow to evil forces. eager to participate in love family, love village, caring community, a strong sense of self, respect for the people to protect their positions, with nostalgia, is a very traditional man.
Cancer person is more conservative, can enjoy the fun and make friends, not selfishness or vanity, to be frank, generous, honest, loyal friends, and personal beliefs, can be entrusted with important duties or work in secret . have a good comprehension and powers of observation, like meditation, is very attentive, eager to analyze their own thoughts and impulses, is very active imagination, likes to meditate on what happened in the past, to analyze their own inner impulses, there is excellent intuitive, there is a sensitive baby, but the conservative heart, do not often reveal the truth, gentle, considerate, loving, value love, beloved people he loves and has a tendency to jealousy, like children. is a romantic type, but , sometimes absent-minded, mutable.
an active type and negative type of two types. active type who has a strong will power and endurance, the gateway to life, life is very skilled, and favorite activities can catch up with the times, for modern pop feel interested in anything. passive type of person, seems easy to self-sufficiency, listless, lazy behavior, do not want to do any work necessary to success, like the submissive, very stubborn is also attached to his already own, these two types are trained early on with the enlightenment.
this constellation, it is very sensitive, often criticized by malicious people to feel sad criticism. For the past all are remembered and sentimental, very few partners to abandon the old friendship with the former. like the collection of ancient works of art or books, but also like to remember those fun. usually has a good memory.
Leo (Gregorian 7 23 - born August 22) Leo is seen in the sky at night in the spring south of the signs. it symbolizes the heart of a lion and the tail. the ruler, Law will be properly cared for each other. As Leo, born with the temperament of the king, so do also understand the pain of others. But sometimes he like to forget the loneliness and hypocrisy in general, and being obsessed with pleasure. due to have a temper hot-tempered, stubborn, and unwilling to compromise the character, so this point is that Leo people need special attention. they are honest, quite dignified. like to own charm and ability to create a place in the world, and dedicated to a position of authority. doing things with go all the way open and above board, disgust despicable villain acts. there acting talent, self-confident, almost narcissistic. On the other hand, due to generous heart, since to attract the masses. However, about their emotions easily, often feel lonely.
Leo impulsive personality, passion, honesty and loyalty, high ideals, solemn and great sense of humor, fun nature, will attract many people, the people are very polite and considerate. generous, impatient, will not bear grudges for too long, a lively imagination, broad interests, talkative, good reasoning and ability to judge, but also creativity, leadership, life passion, impulse, moving style and artistic talent , performing talent, personality clear, fair and square, imposing, bold self-confidence, enthusiasm, love, is a leading figure. but there are also selfish, arrogant, irritable, moody, vanity, waste and other shortcomings. a bustling side, there are dark , lonely, lonely side.
haughty disposition, a kind of aristocratic temperament, noble and generous heart, naturally do not want the dirty secret aggrieved self-esteem to do, or do mean things. You trust in others, also requires others take the absolute trust of your attitude. you like to be someone else's faith, like the master authority. hard work, but do not want to live to be under the jurisdiction of the position. repetitive and monotonous things for bored, do not like complex trivial details. Leo, in general very strong, with a deep ambition and the tyrannical. the challenge to others, you are above board and fair, never take Yinsi response.
the people of this Block have sufficient self-confidence, and self-belief. but also requires to be praised, very conceited, think they own all the best in the world. like the emotional heart of the bets will be shown love frank . and adventurous nature, the pursuit of ideals to face any danger encountered.
Virgo (solar calendar August 23 - 9 months 22 born persons) Virgo has emerged from the spring in summer A little sign on the south sky. Just as the symbol of purity imposed virgin hair. ruler as the br>
Virgo, it first became apparent, with pure, clean freak, and sense of justice. Virgos are the most annoying thing is unreasonable. His nerves were more sensitive, that some Zhimaxiaoshi also thoughtful . Virgo person is not deliberately look for someone else's trouble, but his love of nature will have to pick holes in the habit, so often not the truth. This is one of the greatest Virgo shortcomings should be addressed. Virgin Block, who, if able to have the strong natural curiosity and a keen sensibility cooperate with each other in pursuit of higher ideals, we can create the extraordinary career. man diligent, meticulous, and like with the society, to act to take reasonable doctrine It is a great contributions to society people. considerate of others, work efficiency has commanding presence, but sometimes overly cautious, but unable to grasp the outline, but in general is a project people, and always in a conscience. more in the minds of personality, full of critical spirit, easily become a sharp critic. has strong moral values.
Virgos are hardworking, practical, prudent, honest and reliable, helpful nature, there are diplomatic skills, grooming and attractive, about dress, independent thinking and observation. also have excellent analytical skills and quick comprehension.
love meditation, very diligent, very much reading, the mind is the wisdom and knowledge are stored, and the analysis of strong and suitable for scientific research. but also has a broad definition of the brains and superior intelligence, to become a smart politician. with a good understanding of the nature and easily moved, kindness compassion, emotional sensitivity and conservative, the overall attention to detail overlooked easily understood the overall situation, with a spirit of service. inborn love neat and precise,UGGs, likes the pure. a sentimental, melancholy tendencies. full of inspiration and intuition to understand the lively personality and motivation of others , modest man, not competition with others, look like a negative, in fact, is the steadfast determination and pragmatism. has shown signs of not drive, but the attitude is very careful to do things according to their conscience, to keep order.
attitude of the actual wealth but also down to earth, with a special smart, capable and diligent workers, good memory, perception of power is also strong, but also has carefully wit, after graduation have the habit of learning, will continue to absorb the spiritual food, good critical judgments, like the analysis, but tend to find fault is easy.
Libra (Gregorian 9 23 - born October 22, Libra is seen in the night in the summer Milky Way constellation west, the constellation of Libra, the sign just as summer levy two plates, Libra, ruled by the a very balanced state, which is Libra's personality. to live together, the probable timely and telling jokes, to grasp the harmony site. In general, Libra is the ordinary people's lives and happiness. Libras will always will not hurt to keep the smooth and slick, smooth manner, so the heart does not like to show the truth. personalized sound and sensible. have a good sense of balance and impartiality, good coordination, in the opposite opinion can often take on mediation responsibility. everything emphasis on logic and strategy, definitely not of violence to resolve things, but by clever wrist, in the other's rights and interests to find the balance. cool lake not indecisive, smooth and slick, quite social talent, easily Bode in positions of providence and courtesy.
Libra people have a balanced mind and body attractive, charming personality, attractive, pleasant and elegant, a woman is beautiful, man is handsome. nature, passionate, gentle, kind, compassion, warm, generous, loyal, a impressionable personality. cherish harmony pleasant living environment, approachable, romantic idealism, sociable, elegant. but on the other hand, there are selfish, willful, irritable, impulsive, fickle drawbacks.
have a strong thirst for knowledge, insight, imagination, and intuitive, natural and expressive, and ask others to give a warm and appreciative response. No hi dispute, there is a tendency to evasive, but indecision, suspense shortcomings,Discount UGG boots, optimistic by nature, like their friends. There intuitive and understand human nature, perspective other people's motives. chorus can control the performance of a rational method feelings are not as excited with the cool and clever way to express feelings.
charming personality brought about by too many friends and acquaintances. resonate with the heart strong, compassionate and heavy feelings, attitude towards others just and good. is to understand the feelings of others, is due to inner peace and love, with friends and family around to keep a harmonious relationship, tend to seek to share the happiness of marriage partner, but also the love of the unusual the concept of beauty and aesthetics, there is a sense of balance, line and color of the trial do not feel particularly good strength.
you like all fair dealing. too sophisticated and skilled in the measure,Bailey UGG boots, so that when the temporary things need to determine under indecisive. Instrumentation attitude is very elegant, but pay attention to courtesy, to the heterosexual love life, with a noble development, detailed and balanced performance, there will be a harmonious sexual relationship
Wednesday, November 3, 2010
How Buffett investment during inflation - Orient Securities Research Institute
Buffett: Inflation during the how to invest - Orient Securities Research Institute
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Tags: Financial stocks Category: Investment Classics article
Buffett: Inflation during the how to invest - Orient Securities Research Institute
2009-06-22 Dynamic analysis of stock market
This article was first published in May 1977 in the Contemporary investors will benefit.
Buffett believes that in terms of economic nature, in fact very similar to stocks and bonds, stock shares, but is wearing a coat to the fancy dress party on Wall Street Because the nature of the stock and bonds are very similar to the stock by the effect of inflation is also very large. Inflation transfer wealth to improve the income of the shareholders the potential for welfare of workers is not large. To generate more economic benefits, we need a substantial increase in real capital, and investment in modern production facilities. In addition, the effects of inflation real capital accumulation, expansion of some enterprises after the payment of funds depleted, the companies issuing new shares in the dividend and the games between the end of injury or investors. Inflation rate of return of the enterprise are universal, but requires a lot of expenditure on tangible assets to maintain the business enterprises tend to hurt more by inflation; needs of enterprise expenditure on tangible assets less harm to a lesser extent; economy companies with high goodwill also less subject to damage ... ...
similar to stocks and bonds in the inflation environment, poor performance, it is no secret. Over the past ten years (the sixties and seventies), most of the time we are in an inflationary environment in the stock, this is a difficult period.
However, people in the stock market during this period because of the understanding is still insufficient. Problems of inflation during the bondholders is not difficult to understand. When the dollar value of the monthly deterioration of income and principal in U.S. dollars of securities will not be a big winner.
stocks and bonds has long been that different. For many years, it is generally accepted that stocks can hedge against inflation risk. Produce the source of this understanding is that the stock is not representative claims, but has the ownership of the company production facilities. Investors that, no matter how the Government printing money, the company's production facilities will be able to maintain their real value.
But why backfire? I think mainly due to the economic nature, in fact very similar to stocks and bonds.
I know that for many investors, this argument may sound strange, they will quickly retort that the return on bonds is fixed, annual rate of return on equity investment fluctuations. However, if you carefully examine the company's total return after World War II, you will find a surprising phenomenon: the return on equity, in fact little change.
coupon stock is fixed
the first decade after World War II (1946-1955), the Dow Jones industrial average annual return of 12.8%. The next decade, the figure was 10.1%. The following decade, the return was 10.9%. However, for many years in general, tend to book value of the rate of return of 12%. Years of inflation, there is no indication that the rate of return significantly more than this level, in the years when price stability is the same. Now, we as a manufacturer of these companies, rather than listed stocks. Assuming the business owner to buy shares at the net. Well, they will also be the return of their own about 12%. Because of this high consistency rate of return, we can reasonably assume it to
, of course, in the real world, not just stock investors buy and hold long term. Instead, investors to invest in the share of the company's profit distribution in a larger cup of soup, Yong war between wits. Obviously, the whole, this chaos in vain, to no impact on equity coupon is only reduced investors should obtain, because frequent trading produces a lot of friction costs, such as advisory fees, brokerage commissions. The existence of an active options market to further increase the cost of friction, the casino-like market did not improve the productivity of U.S. companies, but it requires thousands of people in this labor.
stock is permanent
Another fact is that stock investors in the real world is not usually buy the stock at book value. Sometimes they can buy less than book value, but most of the time higher than the book value purchase price, this happens, the 12% rate of return is even greater pressure. With inflation and no increase in return on equity capital. In essence, buy the shares get is inherently fixed rate securities, which are the same and buy bonds.
, of course, in the form of bonds and stocks have a significant difference. First, the bonds will eventually expire, perhaps the long-term investors need to wait, but eventually investors will be able to re-negotiated contract terms. If the current or expected inflation rate coupon makes less than his past, he may refuse to further the game, unless the supply of coupons can now rekindle his interest. Similar situations have occurred in recent years.
However, the stock is permanent. Maturity of the stock infinity. Stock investors locked in gains earned by U.S. firms can, no matter how many. If corporate America is bound to be the rate of return of 12%, then investors must accept the return. Overall, neither equity investors to exit, can not re-negotiate the contract terms. Individual companies may be sold or liquidated, the company may repurchase shares. However, overall, new issues and retained earnings to ensure that our system will increase the equity capital.
So, we hit a point to the form of bonds. Coupon bonds will eventually be re-negotiated equity Of course, we must admit that the long-term rate of return of 12% coupon does not appear to require significant changes.
wearing
our stock, but is wearing a coat to the Wall Street stock fancy dress party of the
ordinary bonds and the return rate was 12% of the Normally, bond investors receive all cash coupon, you can freely re-investment. In contrast, stock investors some of the equity coupon retained by the company, its re-investment rate of return can only be the company's rate of return. In other words, 12% annual rate of return of part of the dividend, the remainder being invested in the company, and then generate 12% return rate.
high inflation, high interest rate era - the stock lost its investors have quit
look back ,1946-1966 years, investors may think they got really points the three cups full of soup. First, they benefit from the interest rate was much higher than the rate of return on equity. Second, the company will be a large return on equity and access to higher reinvestment rate of return is difficult to obtain by other means such a high rate of return. Third, as is widely recognized that the first two advantages, stock investors also benefit from the appreciation of equity capital. This means that, in addition to about 12% of basic share capital return on capital, the investors also received a bonus, this part of the dividends from the Dow's book value from 1.33 times in 1946, rose to 2.20 in 1966 times the benefits. Increase in the valuation process, investors temporarily invested enterprises earned more than the inherent profitability of its rate of return.
to 60 mid and large institutional investors finally found the investment in However, in these financial giants began to compete to buy shares, we entered the accelerated inflation, the era of higher interest rates. Reverse the rising valuation process begins, which is quite logical. Inexorably rising interest rates reduce the investment of all existing fixed coupon value of the subject. With the long-term corporate bond rates start to rise (and eventually rose to 10%), and shares 12% of the equity rate of return and re-investment privileges are pale.
assumed that stocks were risky than bonds, which is understandable. Although the share capital of the largely fixed coupon in the long run, but every year there is indeed a fluctuation. The attitude of investors in the future, subject to considerable annual fluctuations, although this effect is often wrong. Another big equity risk factor is the maturity of their infinitely long. As this layer of additional risk, investors expect the natural reaction is secure in return on equity than bond returns, for example, if the return on bonds is 10%, then the same type of shares issued by the company's return on equity of 12% can not be regarded as With the spread down, began to seek out stock investors.
However, stock investors as a whole can not quit. They can do is a lot of hands, a large amount of friction costs, followed by valuation levels dropped significantly, because 12% of the share capital of the coupon in less attractive in an inflationary environment. Over the past 10 years, bond investors through a series of shocks, in the process, they found that the level of any coupons - either 6%, 8% or 10% - are not doomed, bond prices also will collapse. Most stock investors do not realize they also have a
enterprises to improve the profitability of the five methods is difficult in an inflationary environment of ridiculous
we must consider that 12% of the equity coupon is immutable? Is there any law that the company's return on equity capital continues to rise in the inflation environment, it can not be adjusted upward?
of course, no such law. However, on the other hand, the United States can not be arbitrary or through legislation to improve the company profitability. To improve the return on equity, companies need to do at least the following point: (1) increase turnover, that is, sales and business use of total assets; (2) leverage the use of more expensive; (3) use more leverage; (4) reduce the income tax; (5) increased operating margins.
addition to these, I am afraid to increase return on ordinary shares of no other way. Whether these methods can not improve during the inflation, the company's equity capital rate of return? Below we will carefully described.
first, to increase turnover. About this, we need to consider three major asset categories: accounts receivable, inventory, fixed assets.
accounts receivable growth and increases in proportion to sales, whether sales growth by volume growth, price increases or by the driver. This is no increase in space.
The inventory situation is not so simple. The long term, following the trend of flat stock unit sales trend. However, the short term, the inventory turnover rate may be due to factors such as the expected cost or the impact of the bottleneck up and down.
use the When sales rise due to inflation, using the But in any case, the amount of turnover rate.
20 century and the early 70s, the company using the This trend seems to slow. However, many use the
turnover rate of inflation rose marginally
to fixed assets, as long as the rise in the inflation rate, the first result is to enhance turnover. This is because sales will immediately reflect the new price level, but on account of fixed assets reflect changes only slowly, that is, with the retirement of existing assets and the new price is reset to reflect the changes. Obviously, the slower the company's relocation process, turnover rose more. However, when the company's replacement cycle is complete, the turnover rate will not be so up. Assuming the inflation rate stability, sales and fixed assets will begin to rise with inflation rate constant.
Overall, the turnover rate of inflation can bring a certain degree of increase. Part of the increase is certain, since the use of However, the turnover rate of inflation rise is limited, the rate of return on equity capital sufficient to lead to a significant increase.
then use the leverage it can bring cheaper rate of return on equity capital increase? unlikely. High inflation often leads to increased borrowing costs, rather than decrease. Capital requirements led to soaring inflation rate soared, as lenders worry about long-term loan contracts deepening, more and more stringent loan conditions. However, even if interest rates will not rise further, leverage will become more expensive because the company carrying on the average cost of debt is less than replacement cost. After the expiration of existing debt, need to be replaced. Overall, the cost of future changes in leverage on return on equity may have a slight inhibition.
lenders willing to lend?
financing needs caused by inflation, ironically, is that companies need high profit margins relatively low debt to capital; but low profit margins on the debt of companies seem to Yuhenantian. Lender awareness of the issue now know more than before, so not quite willing to lend to those capital demand, low profit margins so that they substantially increase the company leverage.
However, in an inflationary environment, many companies seem to be the future by increasing leverage to increase return on equity. Management do so because they need a lot of capital, they want to cut dividend or issue new shares do not need to be able to obtain large amounts of capital, because in an inflationary environment attractive to new shares issued is not significant. Therefore, regardless of the cost of their natural reaction is to a large scale borrowing.
However, the current loan interest rates increase the return on equity to enhance the role and the early 60's 4% interest rate for loans far cry from the role. To make matters worse, the debt ratio will also lead to increased credit rating downgrades, leading to further rise in interest costs.
Therefore, in addition to previously outlined, the above reasons will lead to leverage costs. Overall, the downside of leverage costs may offset the benefits of increased leverage.
addition, the U.S. company's debt is much higher than the traditional system, the balance sheet shows the level. Many companies have a huge pension obligations, the number and the company's current employees upon retirement linked to wage levels. In 1955-1965 years, low interest rate environment, the debt from these pension plans is reasonably predictable. Today, no one can say clearly how much the company ultimately obligations.
, of course, on both an annual report on the performance of the pension debt is not accurate data. If the authenticity and reliability of this data, then the number of companies can pre-pay this amount, add it to the existing pension assets, pension assets will be left to an insurance company, all of it to bear the company's pension liabilities are . Alas, I am afraid that in the real world could not find one willing to listen to the transaction of insurance companies.
United States, almost every issue of the company's accounting thought However, by the burden of private sector pension system, the U.S. has the burdens of the companies in fact equivalent to a surprising number of the bond debt.
shareholders should be viewed with a critical eye the increase in leverage, whether it is traditional debt, or not accounted for with the price-linked In the case of non-liability company obtained a 12% rate of return is much better than the debt-ridden enterprises to obtain the same rate of return. This means that now the company's return on equity of 12% of the value is far less than 20 years ago, the rate of return of 12% of the value. reduce the income tax is not feasible
reduce the corporate income tax seems unlikely to improve the return on equity capital. Held by U.S. investors in the company's stock can only be counted as class D, A, B, C class were federal, state and municipal governments hold,UGG bailey button, the representative of the rights of their income tax. Although these
the A, B, C stocks, another attractive feature is that as long as any kind of payment is required, for example, holders of the shares of Class A (Federal Government), as long as Congress can take action. Even more interesting is that sometimes one type of security holders will vote back possession of the enterprise to improve their share of the company in New York in 1975,Discount UGG boots, very frustrating to find out the situation. Whenever A, B, C class
Looking ahead, the long term, that A, B, C class of stock control would reduce their share of the vote would be unwise. Class D shareholders will likely have to work hard to maintain their own share.
FTC statistics show that operating margins decline in inflation
we mentioned above, the five ways to increase return on equity, the last one is to improve operating margins. Some optimists hope that this approach can significantly improve the return on equity. There is no evidence they were wrong. However, the $ 1 in sales in only 100 cents, we get the residual value, pre-tax profits, and this $ 1 of net sales but also a number of expenditure, major projects, including labor, raw materials, energy, and a variety of inter taxes other than income taxes. Inflation period, the relative importance of these costs seems difficult to decline.
Moreover, the recent statistical evidence does not support the view that inflation margin expanded during the argument. In 1956-1965 this period of relatively low inflation, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) report on the manufacturing companies each quarter pre-tax average annual return on sales was 8.6%. 1966-1975 years, the average profit margin is 8%. In other words, despite the significant increase in the inflation rate, the company profit margins declined.
replacement cost if the enterprise in accordance with the pricing, profit margins will expand in the inflation period. However, a simple fact is that, although most large enterprises have widespread influence on the market confidence, but they failed to do the replacement cost pricing. Replacement cost method of accounting is almost always shown over the past decade, a substantial decline in corporate profits. If you like oil, steel and aluminum and other major industries veritable monopoly power, then we can only think highly of their pricing policy constraints.
above may increase the return on common stock of the five factors are finished. In my opinion, the inflation period, the effectiveness of these methods are not large. Maybe you're more optimistic after completing the analysis, but remember that 12% rate of return has been with us for many years.
future earnings three factors: book value and market value of the relationship between tax rates and inflation rate
Maybe you agree with the 12% rate of return on equity of more or less fixed, however you want in the coming years are still making good returns. This is understandable, after all, a long time, many investors earnings are good. However, your future earnings will depend on three variables: book value and market value of the relationship between tax rates and inflation rates.
us to simply calculate the book value and market value. When the stock price has been equal to book value, everything is very simple. If the stock's book value is 100 dollars, the average market value is $ 100, corporate earnings will be 12% of investors 12% returns. If the dividend payout ratio is 50%, the investor will receive a $ 6 dividend, and the increase in book value from the enterprise to obtain another $ 6, $ 6 which will naturally be reflected in the investors in the market value of shares held.
If the stock price is 150% of book value, the whole situation changed. Investors also will receive $ 6 cash dividend, but the return rate of only 4% of the cost. Book value of the enterprise will also rose by 6% to $ 106, the market value of the shares held by investors in a similar manner also rose 6% to $ 159. However, the total return investors - including stock appreciation and dividends - only 10%, 12% lower than the corporate rate of return of the original.
for less than book value when investors buy shares when the price, just reversed the process. For example, if the stock price is 80% of book value, assuming that earnings and dividend payout ratio, and the cases of the same, then the dividend yield would be 7.6% (6 / 80), the stock appreciated by 6%,cheap UGG boots, the total return of 13.5%. In other words, a discount to buy shares is higher than the rate of return premium to buy shares, it is common sense.
100%. Assuming the future of this ratio is close to 100%, which means that stock investors will get 12% of all corporate returns, at least they contain inflation, the tax rate of return of 12%.
inflation is a tax, income after deduction of the number?
inflation is to develop a legislative body than any of our taxes are more damaging taxes. Inflation tax has engulfed the capital of the wonderful features.
If I close the inflation rate assumption is correct, then even if the market rises, the result is still disappointing. Last month, the Dow is about 920 points, compared to 10 years rose 55 points. However, when adjusted for inflation, the Dow fell about 345 points - fell to 520 points from 865 points. Even to get this result, the Dow component companies have about half of the income is not distributed to owners, but the re-investment.
the next decade, only 12% of the equity interest count votes, 40% dividend payout ratio and the current 110% of book value, the Dow will double. Taking into account the inflation rate of 7% in the 1800 sale of stock investors to pay capital gains tax on the actual situation of the poor more than it is now.
Here, I can almost hear the pessimistic investors to predict the response I had. They may think that, regardless of the investment environment in the future, what kind of difficulties faced, they always strive to turn in an excellent investment in their own responses. Their success may not be large, of course, investors whole, can not succeed. If you think you can sell a whim to buy the securities, and gains more than the inflation rate, I'd like to be your agent, but not partners. Even the so-called tax-free
investors - pension funds, university endowment funds - can not escape the inflation tax. If I assume that the 7% inflation rate is correct, then the University of accounting should be the top 7% of annual revenue on purchasing power just as a supplement. Endowment Fund rate of return if less than 7%, they actually earn nothing. If the inflation rate of 7%, 8% of the overall investment rate of return, then, these institutions from the fact that the tax-free to pay 87.5% of the
inflation real capital accumulation, after the payment of funds running low expansion
To understand the effect of inflation on real capital accumulation, requires a little calculation. We do return to the 12% return on equity capital, net of depreciation of the profits should be allowed to reset the existing capacity.
we assume that half of the profits distributed as dividends out of the remaining 6% of equity capital for future growth. If inflation is low, a large part of the company's growth is real growth in physical output. Because in this case, in order to replicate this year's physical output, the second year into the accounts receivable, inventory and fixed assets, funds must be increased by 2%, so only 4% of the incremental investment in physical output section. That is, the amount of 2% growth in funding for the Unreal, reflect inflation; the remaining 4% real growth in funding. If the population growth of 1%, the actual increase in output to bring the per capita net income grew 4% 3%. We used the per capita net income growth of economy is basically in this level.
Now we do another operation. If the inflation rate is 7%, dividend policies and leverage ratios remain the same, consider the inflation component, the remaining zero real growth. 12% of the profits in the half for the dividend, the remaining 6% of all used to maintain the volume of business last year, the increase in funding. Many companies do not actually post in the normal dividend retained earnings to finance for business expansion, they began to ask how we can reduce the dividend at the same time not annoy shareholders? I give them a good news, we already have such programs the.
recent years, the dividend capacity of the power generation industry little or none. In other words, if investors agree to buy their shares, they have the ability to dividend. In 1975, the power industry to pay common stock dividend of 3.3 billion, require investors to return 3.4 billion. Of course, they cleverly decided to shattering, so to avoid repeating the mistakes of Con Ed's. In 1974, Con Ed is simply to tell investors the company unable to pay dividends. The company frank but unwise in the capital markets in return was a disaster.
smart little utilities companies to maintain and even increase its quarterly dividend levels, and then ask the new and old shareholders send your money back. In other words, the company issued new shares. This approach would give huge tax department of capital and underwriters. However, it seems everyone is high spirits, especially the underwriters. Perhaps the Government is the solution
end it
actual as companies grapple with the problem of capital accumulation is expected to cut dividends this approach will be more widely used. However, the controlling shareholder can not completely solve the problem. Inflation rate of 7% and 12% rate of return led to real growth to meet the company's future cash flow less required.
Thus, with the traditional method of private capital accumulation has become precarious in the face of inflation, our government will increasingly attempt to influence the industry's capital inflows, they may fail as the United Kingdom, or, as the Japanese as a success. United States does not have Japanese-style, government, business and labor required close cooperation of cultural and historical background of the soil. If you're lucky, we might be able to avoid the steps the UK has followed in the UK, the distribution of various groups around the cake, the cake bigger rather than battling third.
short, over time, we may hear more about the investment, stagflation and the private sector can not meet the needs of the story.
with: inflation environment is expected to better company performance Since
impact of inflation on corporate profits is universal, then what hurt small companies? in 1983 letter to shareholders,Bailey UGG boots, Buffett pointed out that although a long time people think that natural resources, plant, machinery or other tangible assets of most companies provide a wealth of inflation protection, but not the case. Net tangible assets of any need for operating expenditures are non-leveraged companies will be hurt by inflation. Requires very little expenditure on tangible assets, the smallest businesses hurt by inflation. Return on assets of businesses typically low weight, and its rate of return is often insufficient to meet the inflation of the company's existing business operations, capital requirements, there is no remaining funds to support real growth in dividends to shareholders, to acquire new business. In contrast, inflation in the years in the wealth accumulated, those smaller demand for tangible assets, intangible assets with lasting value, accounting for a larger enterprise. Period of inflation, economic goodwill (not accounting goodwill) can continue to create value, because the real economic value of goodwill in the name is usually proportional to growth and inflation.
in 1981 letter to shareholders, Buffett noted that Berkshire Hathaway's acquisition of the two types of company results are very beautiful, one of which happens to be well adapted to the inflation environment of the enterprise. Such companies must have two characteristics: (1) have the ability without worrying about market share and unit of production dropped significantly in the case of easily raise prices (even when the steady demand, production capacity has not been fully utilized as it can), ( 2) have the ability to significantly increase the amount of corporate output (more is due to inflation than real growth) and less need to coordinate the additional capital investment.
reserved
Tags: Financial stocks Category: Investment Classics article
Buffett: Inflation during the how to invest - Orient Securities Research Institute
2009-06-22 Dynamic analysis of stock market
This article was first published in May 1977 in the Contemporary investors will benefit.
Buffett believes that in terms of economic nature, in fact very similar to stocks and bonds, stock shares, but is wearing a coat to the fancy dress party on Wall Street Because the nature of the stock and bonds are very similar to the stock by the effect of inflation is also very large. Inflation transfer wealth to improve the income of the shareholders the potential for welfare of workers is not large. To generate more economic benefits, we need a substantial increase in real capital, and investment in modern production facilities. In addition, the effects of inflation real capital accumulation, expansion of some enterprises after the payment of funds depleted, the companies issuing new shares in the dividend and the games between the end of injury or investors. Inflation rate of return of the enterprise are universal, but requires a lot of expenditure on tangible assets to maintain the business enterprises tend to hurt more by inflation; needs of enterprise expenditure on tangible assets less harm to a lesser extent; economy companies with high goodwill also less subject to damage ... ...
similar to stocks and bonds in the inflation environment, poor performance, it is no secret. Over the past ten years (the sixties and seventies), most of the time we are in an inflationary environment in the stock, this is a difficult period.
However, people in the stock market during this period because of the understanding is still insufficient. Problems of inflation during the bondholders is not difficult to understand. When the dollar value of the monthly deterioration of income and principal in U.S. dollars of securities will not be a big winner.
stocks and bonds has long been that different. For many years, it is generally accepted that stocks can hedge against inflation risk. Produce the source of this understanding is that the stock is not representative claims, but has the ownership of the company production facilities. Investors that, no matter how the Government printing money, the company's production facilities will be able to maintain their real value.
But why backfire? I think mainly due to the economic nature, in fact very similar to stocks and bonds.
I know that for many investors, this argument may sound strange, they will quickly retort that the return on bonds is fixed, annual rate of return on equity investment fluctuations. However, if you carefully examine the company's total return after World War II, you will find a surprising phenomenon: the return on equity, in fact little change.
coupon stock is fixed
the first decade after World War II (1946-1955), the Dow Jones industrial average annual return of 12.8%. The next decade, the figure was 10.1%. The following decade, the return was 10.9%. However, for many years in general, tend to book value of the rate of return of 12%. Years of inflation, there is no indication that the rate of return significantly more than this level, in the years when price stability is the same. Now, we as a manufacturer of these companies, rather than listed stocks. Assuming the business owner to buy shares at the net. Well, they will also be the return of their own about 12%. Because of this high consistency rate of return, we can reasonably assume it to
, of course, in the real world, not just stock investors buy and hold long term. Instead, investors to invest in the share of the company's profit distribution in a larger cup of soup, Yong war between wits. Obviously, the whole, this chaos in vain, to no impact on equity coupon is only reduced investors should obtain, because frequent trading produces a lot of friction costs, such as advisory fees, brokerage commissions. The existence of an active options market to further increase the cost of friction, the casino-like market did not improve the productivity of U.S. companies, but it requires thousands of people in this labor.
stock is permanent
Another fact is that stock investors in the real world is not usually buy the stock at book value. Sometimes they can buy less than book value, but most of the time higher than the book value purchase price, this happens, the 12% rate of return is even greater pressure. With inflation and no increase in return on equity capital. In essence, buy the shares get is inherently fixed rate securities, which are the same and buy bonds.
, of course, in the form of bonds and stocks have a significant difference. First, the bonds will eventually expire, perhaps the long-term investors need to wait, but eventually investors will be able to re-negotiated contract terms. If the current or expected inflation rate coupon makes less than his past, he may refuse to further the game, unless the supply of coupons can now rekindle his interest. Similar situations have occurred in recent years.
However, the stock is permanent. Maturity of the stock infinity. Stock investors locked in gains earned by U.S. firms can, no matter how many. If corporate America is bound to be the rate of return of 12%, then investors must accept the return. Overall, neither equity investors to exit, can not re-negotiate the contract terms. Individual companies may be sold or liquidated, the company may repurchase shares. However, overall, new issues and retained earnings to ensure that our system will increase the equity capital.
So, we hit a point to the form of bonds. Coupon bonds will eventually be re-negotiated equity Of course, we must admit that the long-term rate of return of 12% coupon does not appear to require significant changes.
wearing
our stock, but is wearing a coat to the Wall Street stock fancy dress party of the
ordinary bonds and the return rate was 12% of the Normally, bond investors receive all cash coupon, you can freely re-investment. In contrast, stock investors some of the equity coupon retained by the company, its re-investment rate of return can only be the company's rate of return. In other words, 12% annual rate of return of part of the dividend, the remainder being invested in the company, and then generate 12% return rate.
high inflation, high interest rate era - the stock lost its investors have quit
look back ,1946-1966 years, investors may think they got really points the three cups full of soup. First, they benefit from the interest rate was much higher than the rate of return on equity. Second, the company will be a large return on equity and access to higher reinvestment rate of return is difficult to obtain by other means such a high rate of return. Third, as is widely recognized that the first two advantages, stock investors also benefit from the appreciation of equity capital. This means that, in addition to about 12% of basic share capital return on capital, the investors also received a bonus, this part of the dividends from the Dow's book value from 1.33 times in 1946, rose to 2.20 in 1966 times the benefits. Increase in the valuation process, investors temporarily invested enterprises earned more than the inherent profitability of its rate of return.
to 60 mid and large institutional investors finally found the investment in However, in these financial giants began to compete to buy shares, we entered the accelerated inflation, the era of higher interest rates. Reverse the rising valuation process begins, which is quite logical. Inexorably rising interest rates reduce the investment of all existing fixed coupon value of the subject. With the long-term corporate bond rates start to rise (and eventually rose to 10%), and shares 12% of the equity rate of return and re-investment privileges are pale.
assumed that stocks were risky than bonds, which is understandable. Although the share capital of the largely fixed coupon in the long run, but every year there is indeed a fluctuation. The attitude of investors in the future, subject to considerable annual fluctuations, although this effect is often wrong. Another big equity risk factor is the maturity of their infinitely long. As this layer of additional risk, investors expect the natural reaction is secure in return on equity than bond returns, for example, if the return on bonds is 10%, then the same type of shares issued by the company's return on equity of 12% can not be regarded as With the spread down, began to seek out stock investors.
However, stock investors as a whole can not quit. They can do is a lot of hands, a large amount of friction costs, followed by valuation levels dropped significantly, because 12% of the share capital of the coupon in less attractive in an inflationary environment. Over the past 10 years, bond investors through a series of shocks, in the process, they found that the level of any coupons - either 6%, 8% or 10% - are not doomed, bond prices also will collapse. Most stock investors do not realize they also have a
enterprises to improve the profitability of the five methods is difficult in an inflationary environment of ridiculous
we must consider that 12% of the equity coupon is immutable? Is there any law that the company's return on equity capital continues to rise in the inflation environment, it can not be adjusted upward?
of course, no such law. However, on the other hand, the United States can not be arbitrary or through legislation to improve the company profitability. To improve the return on equity, companies need to do at least the following point: (1) increase turnover, that is, sales and business use of total assets; (2) leverage the use of more expensive; (3) use more leverage; (4) reduce the income tax; (5) increased operating margins.
addition to these, I am afraid to increase return on ordinary shares of no other way. Whether these methods can not improve during the inflation, the company's equity capital rate of return? Below we will carefully described.
first, to increase turnover. About this, we need to consider three major asset categories: accounts receivable, inventory, fixed assets.
accounts receivable growth and increases in proportion to sales, whether sales growth by volume growth, price increases or by the driver. This is no increase in space.
The inventory situation is not so simple. The long term, following the trend of flat stock unit sales trend. However, the short term, the inventory turnover rate may be due to factors such as the expected cost or the impact of the bottleneck up and down.
use the When sales rise due to inflation, using the But in any case, the amount of turnover rate.
20 century and the early 70s, the company using the This trend seems to slow. However, many use the
turnover rate of inflation rose marginally
to fixed assets, as long as the rise in the inflation rate, the first result is to enhance turnover. This is because sales will immediately reflect the new price level, but on account of fixed assets reflect changes only slowly, that is, with the retirement of existing assets and the new price is reset to reflect the changes. Obviously, the slower the company's relocation process, turnover rose more. However, when the company's replacement cycle is complete, the turnover rate will not be so up. Assuming the inflation rate stability, sales and fixed assets will begin to rise with inflation rate constant.
Overall, the turnover rate of inflation can bring a certain degree of increase. Part of the increase is certain, since the use of However, the turnover rate of inflation rise is limited, the rate of return on equity capital sufficient to lead to a significant increase.
then use the leverage it can bring cheaper rate of return on equity capital increase? unlikely. High inflation often leads to increased borrowing costs, rather than decrease. Capital requirements led to soaring inflation rate soared, as lenders worry about long-term loan contracts deepening, more and more stringent loan conditions. However, even if interest rates will not rise further, leverage will become more expensive because the company carrying on the average cost of debt is less than replacement cost. After the expiration of existing debt, need to be replaced. Overall, the cost of future changes in leverage on return on equity may have a slight inhibition.
lenders willing to lend?
financing needs caused by inflation, ironically, is that companies need high profit margins relatively low debt to capital; but low profit margins on the debt of companies seem to Yuhenantian. Lender awareness of the issue now know more than before, so not quite willing to lend to those capital demand, low profit margins so that they substantially increase the company leverage.
However, in an inflationary environment, many companies seem to be the future by increasing leverage to increase return on equity. Management do so because they need a lot of capital, they want to cut dividend or issue new shares do not need to be able to obtain large amounts of capital, because in an inflationary environment attractive to new shares issued is not significant. Therefore, regardless of the cost of their natural reaction is to a large scale borrowing.
However, the current loan interest rates increase the return on equity to enhance the role and the early 60's 4% interest rate for loans far cry from the role. To make matters worse, the debt ratio will also lead to increased credit rating downgrades, leading to further rise in interest costs.
Therefore, in addition to previously outlined, the above reasons will lead to leverage costs. Overall, the downside of leverage costs may offset the benefits of increased leverage.
addition, the U.S. company's debt is much higher than the traditional system, the balance sheet shows the level. Many companies have a huge pension obligations, the number and the company's current employees upon retirement linked to wage levels. In 1955-1965 years, low interest rate environment, the debt from these pension plans is reasonably predictable. Today, no one can say clearly how much the company ultimately obligations.
, of course, on both an annual report on the performance of the pension debt is not accurate data. If the authenticity and reliability of this data, then the number of companies can pre-pay this amount, add it to the existing pension assets, pension assets will be left to an insurance company, all of it to bear the company's pension liabilities are . Alas, I am afraid that in the real world could not find one willing to listen to the transaction of insurance companies.
United States, almost every issue of the company's accounting thought However, by the burden of private sector pension system, the U.S. has the burdens of the companies in fact equivalent to a surprising number of the bond debt.
shareholders should be viewed with a critical eye the increase in leverage, whether it is traditional debt, or not accounted for with the price-linked In the case of non-liability company obtained a 12% rate of return is much better than the debt-ridden enterprises to obtain the same rate of return. This means that now the company's return on equity of 12% of the value is far less than 20 years ago, the rate of return of 12% of the value. reduce the income tax is not feasible
reduce the corporate income tax seems unlikely to improve the return on equity capital. Held by U.S. investors in the company's stock can only be counted as class D, A, B, C class were federal, state and municipal governments hold,UGG bailey button, the representative of the rights of their income tax. Although these
the A, B, C stocks, another attractive feature is that as long as any kind of payment is required, for example, holders of the shares of Class A (Federal Government), as long as Congress can take action. Even more interesting is that sometimes one type of security holders will vote back possession of the enterprise to improve their share of the company in New York in 1975,Discount UGG boots, very frustrating to find out the situation. Whenever A, B, C class
Looking ahead, the long term, that A, B, C class of stock control would reduce their share of the vote would be unwise. Class D shareholders will likely have to work hard to maintain their own share.
FTC statistics show that operating margins decline in inflation
we mentioned above, the five ways to increase return on equity, the last one is to improve operating margins. Some optimists hope that this approach can significantly improve the return on equity. There is no evidence they were wrong. However, the $ 1 in sales in only 100 cents, we get the residual value, pre-tax profits, and this $ 1 of net sales but also a number of expenditure, major projects, including labor, raw materials, energy, and a variety of inter taxes other than income taxes. Inflation period, the relative importance of these costs seems difficult to decline.
Moreover, the recent statistical evidence does not support the view that inflation margin expanded during the argument. In 1956-1965 this period of relatively low inflation, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) report on the manufacturing companies each quarter pre-tax average annual return on sales was 8.6%. 1966-1975 years, the average profit margin is 8%. In other words, despite the significant increase in the inflation rate, the company profit margins declined.
replacement cost if the enterprise in accordance with the pricing, profit margins will expand in the inflation period. However, a simple fact is that, although most large enterprises have widespread influence on the market confidence, but they failed to do the replacement cost pricing. Replacement cost method of accounting is almost always shown over the past decade, a substantial decline in corporate profits. If you like oil, steel and aluminum and other major industries veritable monopoly power, then we can only think highly of their pricing policy constraints.
above may increase the return on common stock of the five factors are finished. In my opinion, the inflation period, the effectiveness of these methods are not large. Maybe you're more optimistic after completing the analysis, but remember that 12% rate of return has been with us for many years.
future earnings three factors: book value and market value of the relationship between tax rates and inflation rate
Maybe you agree with the 12% rate of return on equity of more or less fixed, however you want in the coming years are still making good returns. This is understandable, after all, a long time, many investors earnings are good. However, your future earnings will depend on three variables: book value and market value of the relationship between tax rates and inflation rates.
us to simply calculate the book value and market value. When the stock price has been equal to book value, everything is very simple. If the stock's book value is 100 dollars, the average market value is $ 100, corporate earnings will be 12% of investors 12% returns. If the dividend payout ratio is 50%, the investor will receive a $ 6 dividend, and the increase in book value from the enterprise to obtain another $ 6, $ 6 which will naturally be reflected in the investors in the market value of shares held.
If the stock price is 150% of book value, the whole situation changed. Investors also will receive $ 6 cash dividend, but the return rate of only 4% of the cost. Book value of the enterprise will also rose by 6% to $ 106, the market value of the shares held by investors in a similar manner also rose 6% to $ 159. However, the total return investors - including stock appreciation and dividends - only 10%, 12% lower than the corporate rate of return of the original.
for less than book value when investors buy shares when the price, just reversed the process. For example, if the stock price is 80% of book value, assuming that earnings and dividend payout ratio, and the cases of the same, then the dividend yield would be 7.6% (6 / 80), the stock appreciated by 6%,cheap UGG boots, the total return of 13.5%. In other words, a discount to buy shares is higher than the rate of return premium to buy shares, it is common sense.
100%. Assuming the future of this ratio is close to 100%, which means that stock investors will get 12% of all corporate returns, at least they contain inflation, the tax rate of return of 12%.
inflation is a tax, income after deduction of the number?
inflation is to develop a legislative body than any of our taxes are more damaging taxes. Inflation tax has engulfed the capital of the wonderful features.
If I close the inflation rate assumption is correct, then even if the market rises, the result is still disappointing. Last month, the Dow is about 920 points, compared to 10 years rose 55 points. However, when adjusted for inflation, the Dow fell about 345 points - fell to 520 points from 865 points. Even to get this result, the Dow component companies have about half of the income is not distributed to owners, but the re-investment.
the next decade, only 12% of the equity interest count votes, 40% dividend payout ratio and the current 110% of book value, the Dow will double. Taking into account the inflation rate of 7% in the 1800 sale of stock investors to pay capital gains tax on the actual situation of the poor more than it is now.
Here, I can almost hear the pessimistic investors to predict the response I had. They may think that, regardless of the investment environment in the future, what kind of difficulties faced, they always strive to turn in an excellent investment in their own responses. Their success may not be large, of course, investors whole, can not succeed. If you think you can sell a whim to buy the securities, and gains more than the inflation rate, I'd like to be your agent, but not partners. Even the so-called tax-free
investors - pension funds, university endowment funds - can not escape the inflation tax. If I assume that the 7% inflation rate is correct, then the University of accounting should be the top 7% of annual revenue on purchasing power just as a supplement. Endowment Fund rate of return if less than 7%, they actually earn nothing. If the inflation rate of 7%, 8% of the overall investment rate of return, then, these institutions from the fact that the tax-free to pay 87.5% of the
inflation real capital accumulation, after the payment of funds running low expansion
To understand the effect of inflation on real capital accumulation, requires a little calculation. We do return to the 12% return on equity capital, net of depreciation of the profits should be allowed to reset the existing capacity.
we assume that half of the profits distributed as dividends out of the remaining 6% of equity capital for future growth. If inflation is low, a large part of the company's growth is real growth in physical output. Because in this case, in order to replicate this year's physical output, the second year into the accounts receivable, inventory and fixed assets, funds must be increased by 2%, so only 4% of the incremental investment in physical output section. That is, the amount of 2% growth in funding for the Unreal, reflect inflation; the remaining 4% real growth in funding. If the population growth of 1%, the actual increase in output to bring the per capita net income grew 4% 3%. We used the per capita net income growth of economy is basically in this level.
Now we do another operation. If the inflation rate is 7%, dividend policies and leverage ratios remain the same, consider the inflation component, the remaining zero real growth. 12% of the profits in the half for the dividend, the remaining 6% of all used to maintain the volume of business last year, the increase in funding. Many companies do not actually post in the normal dividend retained earnings to finance for business expansion, they began to ask how we can reduce the dividend at the same time not annoy shareholders? I give them a good news, we already have such programs the.
recent years, the dividend capacity of the power generation industry little or none. In other words, if investors agree to buy their shares, they have the ability to dividend. In 1975, the power industry to pay common stock dividend of 3.3 billion, require investors to return 3.4 billion. Of course, they cleverly decided to shattering, so to avoid repeating the mistakes of Con Ed's. In 1974, Con Ed is simply to tell investors the company unable to pay dividends. The company frank but unwise in the capital markets in return was a disaster.
smart little utilities companies to maintain and even increase its quarterly dividend levels, and then ask the new and old shareholders send your money back. In other words, the company issued new shares. This approach would give huge tax department of capital and underwriters. However, it seems everyone is high spirits, especially the underwriters. Perhaps the Government is the solution
end it
actual as companies grapple with the problem of capital accumulation is expected to cut dividends this approach will be more widely used. However, the controlling shareholder can not completely solve the problem. Inflation rate of 7% and 12% rate of return led to real growth to meet the company's future cash flow less required.
Thus, with the traditional method of private capital accumulation has become precarious in the face of inflation, our government will increasingly attempt to influence the industry's capital inflows, they may fail as the United Kingdom, or, as the Japanese as a success. United States does not have Japanese-style, government, business and labor required close cooperation of cultural and historical background of the soil. If you're lucky, we might be able to avoid the steps the UK has followed in the UK, the distribution of various groups around the cake, the cake bigger rather than battling third.
short, over time, we may hear more about the investment, stagflation and the private sector can not meet the needs of the story.
with: inflation environment is expected to better company performance Since
impact of inflation on corporate profits is universal, then what hurt small companies? in 1983 letter to shareholders,Bailey UGG boots, Buffett pointed out that although a long time people think that natural resources, plant, machinery or other tangible assets of most companies provide a wealth of inflation protection, but not the case. Net tangible assets of any need for operating expenditures are non-leveraged companies will be hurt by inflation. Requires very little expenditure on tangible assets, the smallest businesses hurt by inflation. Return on assets of businesses typically low weight, and its rate of return is often insufficient to meet the inflation of the company's existing business operations, capital requirements, there is no remaining funds to support real growth in dividends to shareholders, to acquire new business. In contrast, inflation in the years in the wealth accumulated, those smaller demand for tangible assets, intangible assets with lasting value, accounting for a larger enterprise. Period of inflation, economic goodwill (not accounting goodwill) can continue to create value, because the real economic value of goodwill in the name is usually proportional to growth and inflation.
in 1981 letter to shareholders, Buffett noted that Berkshire Hathaway's acquisition of the two types of company results are very beautiful, one of which happens to be well adapted to the inflation environment of the enterprise. Such companies must have two characteristics: (1) have the ability without worrying about market share and unit of production dropped significantly in the case of easily raise prices (even when the steady demand, production capacity has not been fully utilized as it can), ( 2) have the ability to significantly increase the amount of corporate output (more is due to inflation than real growth) and less need to coordinate the additional capital investment.
Sichuan Expressway uprisings Yun Chung
March 3 10 am faster, and only heard it go to Chengdu, but also other car, a good car and left. Wait for soon 11, I heard the car repair can be repaired to 12. Away Chengdu has requested a meeting time for 2:00, head to find a sister unit to the car, go, 11 points off, bon voyage, plus dinner time, arrived at 2:00 should be no problem.
busy horse who upset the so-called , not to the capital in to see the long in front of traffic, a traffic jam. today, appears to be dying to get there on time, unless the company to send aircraft to pick, but could not find parking spaces, only in maritime rescue like in the movies As with the hanging ladder.
ado, or slowly go, the young head of the driver saw the boundless traffic, patience with the slow moving traffic around the two cases. the right of safe passage from time to time the narrow a small displacement of language and other vehicles interspersed Yan, trying to plug into the front, so as soon as possible from this long queue of steel. However, these efforts are in vain, certainly before the accident, and not hanging out of car before the accident, only that Eighty-year-old woman as like, step by step, slowly moving.
After more than an hour of struggling, finally coming to an end, the driver shouted out ; bee only) bees, via high-speed 146.5 km at Chengdu, the right wheel suddenly flew after the car, truck rollover on the highway. the car off the box out of millions of bees, the Chengdu-Chongqing high-speed transient over into the sea bee .
finally misery, early in the rumbling belly, sitting motionless in the car so can not bear hunger can imagine, comrades drivers to be more annoying than I .200 kilometers away, yet halfway, while high-speed roads, speed is limited and can not open flying. to Chengdu have been 2:30, and boss understand horse older, and the driver asked me to dinner, he went straight to the venue. < br> I and drivers in the northeast near the point of eating and Sichuan Chengdu Huaxi Dushi Bao, online and other media to the staff of the hive was covered with a bee sting is the package. After five hours of hard work,UGG boots, Chengdu-Chongqing high-speed return to normal traffic.
appears on the thick belly fat horse is not anti-hunger, direct hungry dizziness was to check blood sugar, blood sugar must be low.
the truck overturned in the accident, is to help people to bees shipped from Kunming to Deyang, in Sichuan Bazi on the stocking of bees. boss saw overturned on the highway bees, heartache and said: the lowest you. the so-called people overnight fortune, beekeepers, all the businessmen, should take precautions, there must be awareness of risk, not that yours is.
drivers on the road, and frequently check ah check their trucks , do not run off the roll, ah.
busy horse who upset the so-called , not to the capital in to see the long in front of traffic, a traffic jam. today, appears to be dying to get there on time, unless the company to send aircraft to pick, but could not find parking spaces, only in maritime rescue like in the movies As with the hanging ladder.
ado, or slowly go, the young head of the driver saw the boundless traffic, patience with the slow moving traffic around the two cases. the right of safe passage from time to time the narrow a small displacement of language and other vehicles interspersed Yan, trying to plug into the front, so as soon as possible from this long queue of steel. However, these efforts are in vain, certainly before the accident, and not hanging out of car before the accident, only that Eighty-year-old woman as like, step by step, slowly moving.
After more than an hour of struggling, finally coming to an end, the driver shouted out ; bee only) bees, via high-speed 146.5 km at Chengdu, the right wheel suddenly flew after the car, truck rollover on the highway. the car off the box out of millions of bees, the Chengdu-Chongqing high-speed transient over into the sea bee .
finally misery, early in the rumbling belly, sitting motionless in the car so can not bear hunger can imagine, comrades drivers to be more annoying than I .200 kilometers away, yet halfway, while high-speed roads, speed is limited and can not open flying. to Chengdu have been 2:30, and boss understand horse older, and the driver asked me to dinner, he went straight to the venue. < br> I and drivers in the northeast near the point of eating and Sichuan Chengdu Huaxi Dushi Bao, online and other media to the staff of the hive was covered with a bee sting is the package. After five hours of hard work,UGG boots, Chengdu-Chongqing high-speed return to normal traffic.
appears on the thick belly fat horse is not anti-hunger, direct hungry dizziness was to check blood sugar, blood sugar must be low.
the truck overturned in the accident, is to help people to bees shipped from Kunming to Deyang, in Sichuan Bazi on the stocking of bees. boss saw overturned on the highway bees, heartache and said: the lowest you. the so-called people overnight fortune, beekeepers, all the businessmen, should take precautions, there must be awareness of risk, not that yours is.
drivers on the road, and frequently check ah check their trucks , do not run off the roll, ah.
Monday, November 1, 2010
China housing prices to catch up the next tier cities
Beijing Statistics Bureau, National Bureau of Statistics recently released data show that in August in Beijing housing sales price index was 108.9%, or more than in July dropped 1.3 percentage points; chain prices were flat last month for the first time this year, stopped up. the face of the real estate market this year to all the variables, all the industry people in respect of a current trend of China's economy is indeed weakening, the real estate down there. but as the property market into a period of adjustment, the central bank cut Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and other mainland tier cities will house a few years to catch up with Hong Kong, the debate of these international cities. whether the current price trend should be how to objectively judge? the next few years in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, the mainland line whether the city's rapid rise in house prices and catch up with some big cities of the potential power of high prices? more rational analysis of how various factors affect the price?
current guests:
Feng Division of Peking University Director of the Center of the real estate finance economy
He Jianya deputy general manager of China Merchants Property Development Co., Ltd. Jia Wolong
Pacific Investment Advisory Co., Ltd. Chief Executive Officer of Hong Kong
Zhang Kunyu Beijing general manager of Zhongyuan Real Estate Investment Advisor < br> Host:
correspondents Yao Yanyan
perspective highlights:
Feng Section: Fluctuation of prices to match the macroeconomic development, just as the owner and the dog in the street, like Liu Wan - Macroeconomics is the owner, the price is dog, the dog may be running in front of the owner may also be followed with the master, but as long as the Master gives a call, the dog will be returned to the owner side; the same is true of housing prices, by macroeconomic constraints, if more than or backward will affect the overall development, and will certainly return to the owner to adjust the pace up. the more central city of a country more than the non-central city's economic development better, with more cities business opportunities and economic development potential, thus boosting the housing market boom.
(omit the other point of view)
inevitable adjustment
Moderator: one side is heard one after another decline in home sales prices, the national housing boom Index reveal the significant downturn in the real estate market downturn such as news, while the central bank lowered the How should rationally determine the current property market situation and price trend of the development problem?
von subjects: prices and the real estate market itself is a very complex issue, in fact, we all want to have a healthy development of the market, but reality often can not fully do so. since last August and September when we had started to predict the property market will experience a period of adjustment, and require at least 15 months, but look at the current overall situation, this estimate somewhat conservative.
from the current sales point of view, January to September last year, only one-third of the total, so now more annoying problem is not the price, but sales of the problem, how it can better Housing for sale will be sold in order to achieve the real estate development process.
drop in home prices is inevitable, but there is still a drop space, is expected to end are not going to clear. real estate the market either do not adjust, once the adjustment will be a long process, at least two or three years time to Huanguo Lai.
(omit the other point of view)
up and not rising, see
Moderator: experience After this round of adjustment over the future of China's rapid rise in house prices will again experienced on? to understand what aspects should determine the trend of the future?
Feng Section: Fluctuation of prices to match the macroeconomic development Some people have compared the relationship between the two main people and dogs - is the master of macroeconomic, price is a little dog. just as the owner with a dog in the street, like Liu Wan, dog owners may be running in front of may also be back with the owner,UGG shoes, but as long as the Master gives a call,Discount UGG boots, the dog will be returned to the owner side; and prices the same is true, by the macro-economic constraints, when the GDP growth of 15% growth in house prices can not exceed the figures, and maintained at 12% -15%, and if more than, it will be back, otherwise it will collapse; Similarly, if the macroeconomic downturn, people's purchasing power decline, the industry's slump has led to lack of confidence to buy a house, resulting in decline in house prices will undermine the entire market, will finally be adjusted back to the macroeconomic development in harmony with the pace up, it is economic law.
(omit the other point of view)
reference Hong Kong
Moderator: It should be said, such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, including the first-tier cities in the Mainland in the past some time towards the representatives of housing, whether last year's rapid rise, or fall since the momentum of this year, with the respective city closely related to the development, specifically how to analyze these first-tier cities in the Mainland real estate market? international city like Hong Kong, the formation of their high prices What are the factors? mainland tier cities have in common with them, and the same have the potential for higher prices?
von subjects: the more central city of a country more than the non-central city's economic development and real estate market better, which is indisputable, the central city with more business opportunities and economic development potential,UGG bailey button, which is relatively remote city is difficult to have. from the specific point of view the city of Shenzhen in the current price level stable, but to take back to last year's high of more time, because from the city itself, does not provide such a large development opportunities; Shanghai and Shenzhen, somewhat similar, especially in the earlier time has been in 2005 led the state, and some prices have been as high as 20,000 yuan / square meter, now at 15,000 / sqm and 2.5 million / sq m of steady state, the international metropolis of Shanghai has a significant position on the Yangtze River Delta and the country as a whole are important, their financial and tertiary industry developed rapidly, white-collar workers people more purchasing power, so significant price volatility appears to be significantly less likely.
Beijing's situation is relatively unique, because it is the capital, is the political and cultural center,UGG boots cheap, the changing situation in the country in recent years, when Local rights are attributed to the central tightening after Beijing's various opportunities such as business opportunities will be more than the other cities to promote the flow of Beijing is more influx of large numbers of people, and promote economic development in Beijing. Beijing's real estate market will through a period of adjustment, but short compared to other cities, is expected within two years to enter the steady state, maintained at the level in 2007 -2008. If this economy is not down a few years time, and be able to accelerate the development of various industrial, technical content upgrade, then the next round of economic cycle vertices, the property market will once again usher in 高涨.
international city like Hong Kong, was more far-reaching influence of Western culture, but also because of its market economy perfect, more free trade, and legal system is relatively sound and finance the development of more advanced, the tax is relatively low, making it more competitive to attract a lot of investor attention, so as to continuously push up prices. But in recent years in Hong Kong the status of international trade and the advantage has been gradually declining, the domestic cities such as Shanghai is the continuous rise in exports, with economic development, the future may one day synchronized with the development of Hong Kong, but to say to the house itself, or a certain distance.
(omit other points)
demand and growth
Moderator: On the issue prices, the industry there has been lively discussion of the sound, some say, in fact, is not Beijing's rigid demand strong population growth will not push up housing prices in Beijing; a rigid view is that strong demand in Beijing, especially in the Olympics and the overall economic development driven by the influx of a large number of flow will cause another round of higher prices, we should how to understand these statements? how to understand a city's housing prices and the relationship between the income of urban residents?
von Branch: Beijing's population growth in the city itself is actually very slow, due to its slow population growth, rising cost of living so that the purchase of local demand is relatively weak, but in recent years, we really can see the changes in the economic situation in Beijing has been more and more influx of foreign population, support from the huge purchasing power of the real estate market in Beijing, But one thing we must be clear, this is a dynamic and complex process, if not centralized in Beijing, people's needs will be correspondingly weakened, but if the system can be sustained on to promote the continuous flow of people into, the housing demand will be endless.
(omit the other point of view)
to catch up with Hong Kong if
Moderator: Imagine a front line so to the cities in the Mainland as Hong Kong house prices in the big cities shoulder to shoulder, what will be situation? this situation and will give the industry the impact of China's economic development?
Feng Section: From the real estate market itself, should not take house prices catch up with some of the world when the target level of developed cities , instead of moving the actual macroeconomic developments. next if the continued rise in house prices, the government must think carefully the direction of urban development, on balance to be adjusted accordingly; and developers are in high market prices, the ability to business costs will continue to have sufficient land for development to take, and some disadvantaged businesses can not afford the cost pressure will gradually be eliminated.
(omit the other point of view)
current guests:
Feng Division of Peking University Director of the Center of the real estate finance economy
He Jianya deputy general manager of China Merchants Property Development Co., Ltd. Jia Wolong
Pacific Investment Advisory Co., Ltd. Chief Executive Officer of Hong Kong
Zhang Kunyu Beijing general manager of Zhongyuan Real Estate Investment Advisor < br> Host:
correspondents Yao Yanyan
perspective highlights:
Feng Section: Fluctuation of prices to match the macroeconomic development, just as the owner and the dog in the street, like Liu Wan - Macroeconomics is the owner, the price is dog, the dog may be running in front of the owner may also be followed with the master, but as long as the Master gives a call, the dog will be returned to the owner side; the same is true of housing prices, by macroeconomic constraints, if more than or backward will affect the overall development, and will certainly return to the owner to adjust the pace up. the more central city of a country more than the non-central city's economic development better, with more cities business opportunities and economic development potential, thus boosting the housing market boom.
(omit the other point of view)
inevitable adjustment
Moderator: one side is heard one after another decline in home sales prices, the national housing boom Index reveal the significant downturn in the real estate market downturn such as news, while the central bank lowered the How should rationally determine the current property market situation and price trend of the development problem?
von subjects: prices and the real estate market itself is a very complex issue, in fact, we all want to have a healthy development of the market, but reality often can not fully do so. since last August and September when we had started to predict the property market will experience a period of adjustment, and require at least 15 months, but look at the current overall situation, this estimate somewhat conservative.
from the current sales point of view, January to September last year, only one-third of the total, so now more annoying problem is not the price, but sales of the problem, how it can better Housing for sale will be sold in order to achieve the real estate development process.
drop in home prices is inevitable, but there is still a drop space, is expected to end are not going to clear. real estate the market either do not adjust, once the adjustment will be a long process, at least two or three years time to Huanguo Lai.
(omit the other point of view)
up and not rising, see
Moderator: experience After this round of adjustment over the future of China's rapid rise in house prices will again experienced on? to understand what aspects should determine the trend of the future?
Feng Section: Fluctuation of prices to match the macroeconomic development Some people have compared the relationship between the two main people and dogs - is the master of macroeconomic, price is a little dog. just as the owner with a dog in the street, like Liu Wan, dog owners may be running in front of may also be back with the owner,UGG shoes, but as long as the Master gives a call,Discount UGG boots, the dog will be returned to the owner side; and prices the same is true, by the macro-economic constraints, when the GDP growth of 15% growth in house prices can not exceed the figures, and maintained at 12% -15%, and if more than, it will be back, otherwise it will collapse; Similarly, if the macroeconomic downturn, people's purchasing power decline, the industry's slump has led to lack of confidence to buy a house, resulting in decline in house prices will undermine the entire market, will finally be adjusted back to the macroeconomic development in harmony with the pace up, it is economic law.
(omit the other point of view)
reference Hong Kong
Moderator: It should be said, such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, including the first-tier cities in the Mainland in the past some time towards the representatives of housing, whether last year's rapid rise, or fall since the momentum of this year, with the respective city closely related to the development, specifically how to analyze these first-tier cities in the Mainland real estate market? international city like Hong Kong, the formation of their high prices What are the factors? mainland tier cities have in common with them, and the same have the potential for higher prices?
von subjects: the more central city of a country more than the non-central city's economic development and real estate market better, which is indisputable, the central city with more business opportunities and economic development potential,UGG bailey button, which is relatively remote city is difficult to have. from the specific point of view the city of Shenzhen in the current price level stable, but to take back to last year's high of more time, because from the city itself, does not provide such a large development opportunities; Shanghai and Shenzhen, somewhat similar, especially in the earlier time has been in 2005 led the state, and some prices have been as high as 20,000 yuan / square meter, now at 15,000 / sqm and 2.5 million / sq m of steady state, the international metropolis of Shanghai has a significant position on the Yangtze River Delta and the country as a whole are important, their financial and tertiary industry developed rapidly, white-collar workers people more purchasing power, so significant price volatility appears to be significantly less likely.
Beijing's situation is relatively unique, because it is the capital, is the political and cultural center,UGG boots cheap, the changing situation in the country in recent years, when Local rights are attributed to the central tightening after Beijing's various opportunities such as business opportunities will be more than the other cities to promote the flow of Beijing is more influx of large numbers of people, and promote economic development in Beijing. Beijing's real estate market will through a period of adjustment, but short compared to other cities, is expected within two years to enter the steady state, maintained at the level in 2007 -2008. If this economy is not down a few years time, and be able to accelerate the development of various industrial, technical content upgrade, then the next round of economic cycle vertices, the property market will once again usher in 高涨.
international city like Hong Kong, was more far-reaching influence of Western culture, but also because of its market economy perfect, more free trade, and legal system is relatively sound and finance the development of more advanced, the tax is relatively low, making it more competitive to attract a lot of investor attention, so as to continuously push up prices. But in recent years in Hong Kong the status of international trade and the advantage has been gradually declining, the domestic cities such as Shanghai is the continuous rise in exports, with economic development, the future may one day synchronized with the development of Hong Kong, but to say to the house itself, or a certain distance.
(omit other points)
demand and growth
Moderator: On the issue prices, the industry there has been lively discussion of the sound, some say, in fact, is not Beijing's rigid demand strong population growth will not push up housing prices in Beijing; a rigid view is that strong demand in Beijing, especially in the Olympics and the overall economic development driven by the influx of a large number of flow will cause another round of higher prices, we should how to understand these statements? how to understand a city's housing prices and the relationship between the income of urban residents?
von Branch: Beijing's population growth in the city itself is actually very slow, due to its slow population growth, rising cost of living so that the purchase of local demand is relatively weak, but in recent years, we really can see the changes in the economic situation in Beijing has been more and more influx of foreign population, support from the huge purchasing power of the real estate market in Beijing, But one thing we must be clear, this is a dynamic and complex process, if not centralized in Beijing, people's needs will be correspondingly weakened, but if the system can be sustained on to promote the continuous flow of people into, the housing demand will be endless.
(omit the other point of view)
to catch up with Hong Kong if
Moderator: Imagine a front line so to the cities in the Mainland as Hong Kong house prices in the big cities shoulder to shoulder, what will be situation? this situation and will give the industry the impact of China's economic development?
Feng Section: From the real estate market itself, should not take house prices catch up with some of the world when the target level of developed cities , instead of moving the actual macroeconomic developments. next if the continued rise in house prices, the government must think carefully the direction of urban development, on balance to be adjusted accordingly; and developers are in high market prices, the ability to business costs will continue to have sufficient land for development to take, and some disadvantaged businesses can not afford the cost pressure will gradually be eliminated.
(omit the other point of view)
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