(Abstract) beer game ~ ~ ~

 Beer Game mm Whose fault?
Action in order to further realize the mental retardation of learning, let us do an interesting experiment, it is also training in systems thinking, a very important activity. Our approach is to create a simulated organization, because there you can see the consequences of your decision, and the organization than in the real more clearly seen. We often invite people to participate in this experiment, is a known (beer game) simulation, developed the game for the first time, was in the sixties the MIT Sloan School of Management (Sloan School of Management), which is similar to more simple, the participants make a decision only. In the experiment, we will be better than in real organizations, the more clearly exposed to those with intellectual disabilities and their causes. million times on the experimental results have shown that much of the problem from Consideration of basic human behavior and interaction, it is more than the characteristics of organizations and policies. hope everyone has a chance to personally try this in terms of the plight of all humanity; are very important games.
in the beer game , we have exposure in a little attention, but widespread organization. It is an all in all industrial countries, responsible for production and marketing of commodity production and distribution system. this experiment is the production and distribution of a single brand of beer system. to participate in games, each playing different roles, and completely free to make any decisions. Their only goal is to play its role as far as possible, so that the maximum profit. This is the role of three major retailers, wholesalers and the manufacturer's marketing director. Now let three different roles, respectively, the angle of view the development of the story.
retailers
Imagine you are a retailer. you may be in a suburban home twenty-four hours of business The chain manager; or your business is an ancient town, a family grocery store; also be a side of the road in the remote beverage wholesalers.
like no matter what your shop, or any other goods you sell , beer is your principal place of business projects. It is not only profitable, but also to attract customers to come in to buy other commodities, such as popcorn and potato chips and so on. you keep at least a dozen stocks various brands of beer, and roughly log store inventory.
once a week, there will be truck drivers to the back door of your store. You gave him a copy of the weekly order form, the above reads the number of boxes of each brand you want. truck drivers in other parts of finish After your order will give you the beer wholesalers handling, appropriate arrangements for the shipment and the order shipped to your store. Gradually, you have been accustomed to these processes, the average time your order around you; for words, the beer is usually about four weeks after your order was delivered to your store.
you and your beer wholesalers, has never been to meet directly with each other and chatted. you only through the check mark to a piece of paper communication messages. This is because your store sells hundreds of items from dozens of wholesalers, beer wholesalers and you have to deal more than a dozen different stores in cities hundreds of delivery. in your customers and orders continued to increase, and who has time to chat? number is you only need to communicate with each other matters.
you sell the most stable of a beer called you store about 300 miles, small but effective production by the manufacturer. It is not super-popular brand; In fact, the manufacturer completely without ads. But, as a day the general law of the morning papers, weekly You have to sell 4 boxes of beer lovers. can be sure that these customers are mostly young men aged around 20, no fixed preference; but somehow, every time a customer switch to other brands of beer, there will be other to take his lover to buy beer.
To ensure that you always have enough beer lover, you always try to keep 12 boxes of stock. So come Monday when the beer truck, you order 4 boxes, over time, you heart box has the turnover rate of 4 per week for granted, even when your order will be made unconsciously, said: October, a week (let us call the second week), a sudden increase in sales of beer lovers doubled, from 4 to 8 box case. You think that good, you left the store 8 box. you do not know why the sudden increase in sales of beer lover 4 boxes. Maybe it was a banquet! However, in order to add an additional 4 boxes sold, you increase the number on the order of 8 boxes. This will allow you to resume normal inventory of 12 boxes.
�� ��third week: The strange thing is, the next week to sell you another 8 cases of beer lovers. Occasionally, you will have to empty briefly pondering why. but spring break has not arrived yet, the beer company did not inform you organizing special promotional activities, there may be other reasons hh, but a customer came in and interrupted your thoughts.
At this time, the delivery came, what about the beer lover, you still no chance to think carefully about, you look down the delivery note, sent only to see him this time around before you set of 4 boxes. You are only 4 boxes of inventory, meaning that unless the decline in sales next, otherwise you this week Beer lovers will be all sold out. So order 8 boxes to catch at least the rate of sales. But to be safe, you order 12 boxes, so you can rebuild the original standard safety stock.
�� ��fourth week: On Tuesday, you find the time to one or two young customer asked. It was found about a month ago, a new pop music videos broadcast on television channels, the chorus of Beer, toward the sun, asked, but the potato chip deliveryman just to delivery, lover of beer and the problem is slide out of your mind.
beer with your order the next arrival, only sent 5 boxes. (although because only 1 box of leftover inventory, you have some upset, but think it is good. Thanks to the promotional videos for free.) Although you know more than the previous set had been a few cases, but think about demand may rise further, and do not order 16 cases .
�� ��fifth week: Monday morning, you sold out the only one box. Fortunately, you also received 7 boxes of beer lovers (and apparently begun to respond to your wholesalers have higher levels of your order.) But all the beer they sold out before the end of this week, your inventory completely out of stock. you looked a little worried the empty shelves, and do another set of 16 boxes. you do not want to end up with the popular reputation of beer out of stock.
�� ��sixth week: Sure enough, when customers began this week to see if there is no lover of beer folder. there are two very loyal, willing to wait to buy. They said: We immediately come to buy. They turn up to come to buy their own 1 box, and the remaining 4 cases of beer they sold out before the weekend. have two customers to leave you their names, the next shipment arrived. please immediately call them. you can not help but think: The growing popularity of beer.
glaring at the empty shelves in two days after that if you do not order another 16 boxes is not right. you struggling with whether to order more quantity, but you are restrained their own, because you know the next several will soon begin delivery of large orders. But when will they deliver it?
�� ��seventh week: This week brought only 5 cases of delivery trucks, That means you have to face empty shelves for a week. you have the goods to the order of the customer, less than two days, the rest of the lover of beer and sold out. This week is more scary, there are five customers left their name. You ordered another 16 boxes, and praying that you will start to arrive large orders.
�� ��eight weeks: At this point you have the attention of beer lovers, more than any other goods you sell more close. Every time a customer to buy the look inconspicuous, half dozen of beer, you will pay special attention. People seem to talk about Valentine's beer. you eagerly waiting for the truck driver sent 16 cases of beer.
but the truck driver only sent 5 boxes. You say: . But I think you will receive the goods after a few weeks. no. This will result in your reputation What impact? you frustrated and angry.
This time you ordered 24 boxes, than you originally planned to order more than doubled. can not understand why the wholesalers to treat you? Does not he know that we have much appetite for the market here?
wholesalers
as a wholesale distribution executives, beer is your life. You spend the day in a very long time inside a small warehouse, piled high in the warehouse can think of each brand of beer, of course, including the beer lover. your service area includes the city, the city's suburbs and remote countryside. you are not the only local beer wholesalers, but you a solid foundation. and there are a number of small brands, including Valentine's beer account, by your sole agent in the area.
contact you with the way manufacturers, retailers, mostly used to contact you with the same way. you every week on a form, fill in the number of scribbled and handed to your driver. an average of 4 weeks, the beer will be set to. just your total order is not to fine, but the whole batch. The total number of each batch about small enough to fill a truck, so you think is the truck volume. just like your retailers every week you order 4 boxes to the beer lover, you have a week to order four truck manufacturers amount, enough to make you have 12 trucks at any time the standard product inventory.
to eight weeks you almost have the same retailers as you feel frustration and anger. lovers of beer has always been a reliable and stable brand, but a few weeks ago (about the fourth week) suddenly began to rapidly increase the order. and then down the week, orders from retailers to continue to increase. to the eighth week, most retailers have ordered beer is the usual number of three or four times.
Initially, the warehouse inventory, easily meet the needs of additional orders. And when you notice a lover of beer sales increase, you immediately order the manufacturers to improve the number of such beer. VI weeks in the beer distribution news you see on a popular music video on the article, the further increase order volume, substantial increase of 20 trucks per week amount. This is your usual amount of beer ordered 5 times. but you need to so much, because the beer popularity, the demand for orders from retailers to judge, was double, triple or even quadruple increase.
to the sixth week, all you have to send out inventory of beer, yet less the number of goods or alarming. there are a few of the larger chains also anxious to call you directly, but your inventory empty beer lover. but at least you know, and then set the beers more than a few weeks you will be sent.
In the eighth week, when you call the manufacturer and ask whether there is any way to speed up their delivery (and inform them you have the amount of orders increased to 30 trucks), you dismay found that they increased production capacity in two weeks ago. They have just learned that the increased demand. how did they get so slow?
�� ��ninth week: Now is the ninth week. Do you received each week from each of the retail volume of about 20 trucks, order beer lover, and you still No goods. last week before the end of your goods to retailers due to the amount of the addition of 29 trucks. your staff for the field staff phone calls have become commonplace, and even they ask you to install an answering machine, designed to explain something about the beer lover. But you are confident in the week, she had received from the manufacturer before you order a month the amount of ZO truck.
However, they only sent six trucks content. Obviously manufacturers are still missing goods, while the relatively large number of production runs only now beginning to ship. you call several large chain customers, to assure them that they ordered the beer will soon be sent.
�� ��tenth week: the tenth week It is an angry man. You are expected to send extra (amount of at least 20 trucks) of beer missing. you think maybe the manufacturer does not increase production so quickly. They only give you the amount of 8 trucks. to call to have no answer telephone, apparently all of them are full production in the factory.
At the same time, individual stores in the sales of beer apparently mad because you received an unprecedented large orders this week for the 26 mm truck volume. Perhaps they are because they can not get the beer from you, so the order so much. No matter what, you have to keep up with orders. If you can not get beer, they might turn to your competitors to purchase.
you ordered from the manufacturer volume of 40 trucks.
�� ��Week: In the tenth week, you find yourself near the bar in the warehouse into a particularly long time for lunch (because you really do not like receiving a phone call chain.) beer lovers only sent 12 trucks. you are still unable to contact the manufacturer for any one person. and you have more than 100 trucks waiting for the replenishment order quantity: have set the amount of outstanding 77 trucks, plus this week received from the store the amount of the order of 28 trucks
you have to get beer, so you ordered from the manufacturer and then the amount of 40 trucks.
�� ��twelfth week: to the twelfth week, the situation is more understood. demand for beer lovers the degree of change is much higher than you expect. as long as you think if there is enough stock, can make much money, they had identified a sigh. Manufacturers How can you do? Why long-term demand will rise out of stock so fast? How can you expect but keep up? everything you know is never again fall into such long-term out of the situation. you re-order quantity of 60 trucks.
the next four weeks, demand continues to exceed your supply. In fact, to the thirteenth week, you totally did not decrease due to volume.
�� ��Week: In the tenth and fifteenth weeks, four weeks, you finally start receiving more from the manufacturer a large number of shipments. Meanwhile, the order quantity from the store down a little. you think maybe because last week they set a little more. At this point, any help reduce the number of things are less popular goods . Now to the sixteenth week, you finally get the last few weeks almost all the beer required: the amount of 55 trucks. The beer must board planes stacked up, and these come in the goods will be sold soon.
A whole week off, you hope the order would come in the store. But you see the orders one by one the number of Reclamation are the same: zero, zero, zero, zero, zero. what's wrong with these people? around Previously, they growled out loud to you want a beer, now they do not even a box of.
sudden, you felt a chill from the heart to take up. you just have to give written orders for the manufacturer Remove all of the 24-truck volume.
�� ��seventeenth week: Next this week, and 60 trucks to the amount of beer lovers. store of the order amount is still zero .109 goods truck in your warehouse wind patterns do not move, you pile every day walking around in these goods, out of a concave or not.
store this week should be increased to some of the goods, after all, that video is still broadcast. your heart with himself if he did not come to order, you want every bloody hell retailers into the eighteenth floor.
appalling is that retailers order from you again lover of beer odd number. you ordered from the manufacturer Naturally, this is the number zero. However, hateful, or continue to beer manufacturers sent, this week brought in 60 trucks and the amount is excessive, and he do not know my situation? Why should the freight to the manufacturer? It to When will it end?
manufacturers
Imagine that you are being hired four months ago, this beer is responsible for the manufacturer's distribution and marketing executives, beer lovers were just that, a few major products. This is a small factory, known for quality, marketing is not very well, so the company just hire you to enhance marketing.
Now, obviously you do on some things. because you took office less than two months (this game the sixth week), new orders are beginning to rapidly increase. to you as the first three months of the end of this work, beer batch of 40 orders per week, you just started with just four batches, so you feel satisfied with the substantial growth. And Your shipments are 30 batches.
factory goods in question also lacks. In this factory, a bottle of beer brewed from your decision to complete the shipment of beer preparation, at least two weeks , so you for a few batches of beer in the warehouse inventory, which was granted. but those in the seventh week out of the light, and this just came two weeks after the order things began to rise. The next week you have set in 9 batches outstanding orders, there are 24 approved the new order, you can only send 22 batches. then you have to be a hero in the company. director award to each employee to work longer hours than doubled, and excited to be Interviews for the factories to hire new help.
you are lucky because of the video referred to pop music lovers of beer. you're the third week from the letter written by young people learned to do video, but only until the sixth week see the video caused by the impact of higher orders.
even to the tenth weeks, the factory can not match the order has set the amount outstanding. you are constantly asked for more brewing capacity. you think I do not know their bonuses this year will be How many, and perhaps may require a certain percentage of profits. you bored in the marketing magazine for his portrait on the cover.
in the sixteenth week, you finally catch up with the amount outstanding has been set. But in the seventeenth week, your dealer only ordered 19 batches of goods. and to the eighteenth week, they are completely not order beer, and some can even be seen on the order are all cut out of.
is now the tenth nine weeks. you are 100 batches of beer warehouse inventory. And beer sales are still pegged to zero. At the same time you asked a lot over the last beer brewed, the brewing are constantly. You play in fear of a phone call to the boss. you say: ; but I'm sure this is only temporary. three weeks. you want to order reproduce the peak of the growing slim, and your excuses sound more and more weak. you mess distributors and retailers, last month frantically to goods, nothing this month set a sudden, News and pop music videos are created high demand for beer lovers.
�� ��Twenty-four weeks: you are twenty-four weeks early, to borrow the company car to visit the first stop is the wholesaler's office. This is not your first meeting with the wholesaler, is only the second time you talk to, because up until this crisis, and nothing to say. you looking dignified greeting each other a bit, and then take you back wholesaler warehouse. wholesaler, said: ;
with you to determine inevitable collapse of demand from the phenomenon of violence, .
the way back, the idea of your marketing strategy in mind the wording of the report, of the moment, you decide in a retail store along the way after a pause.'re lucky, owner of the shop. you introduce yourself retailer face to squeeze out a smile. him. to look after a shop assistant, both of you with a fast food restaurant next door, all to a cup of coffee.
readily bring the store inventory record book retailer, to open cross- on the table. sell beer lover. in accordance with current sales pace, we'll be six weeks after ordering things. Retailers have to wait every six weeks and then ordered beer, and then only order a few boxes a week, will be one year or more time-consuming, can the amount of inventory wholesalers of 220 trucks has dropped significantly. You say: Who made it happen hh I mean, how do we prevent such tragedies from happening again? when the video began airing, we have been 4 cases of beer are sold. Next week we sold 8 of the second box. not even a box to do? . number you do not deliver the beer to us. We had to keep order, to ensure that sufficient quantities to keep up with customer needs.
retailer said: capital. I just want to sell some of that 93 cases of beer. dismissal of workers or shut down production lines to blame, blame the retailers as wholesalers, retailers, wholesalers blame, and both want to blame you. at least for now early enough, can make you leave with a little dignity. As long as Can you come up with some explanation of this is not your fault, shows that you are the victim, not the culprit.
reflection
a beer game, the structure of behavior
different people in the same structure in nature tend to produce similar results. When problems occur or when performance can not be reached to do so, we would usually blame on certain people or things. However, our problem or crisis, but often the system by which we live caused by the structure, rather than due to external forces or individual error.
Second, the structure of human systems is subtle and complex
We tend to want to make only the structure of the external constraints, but in human system, the structure also includes the time you make a decision based on many principles, we interpret these principles based on knowledge, goals, norms, and into action.
Third, effective creative solutions often come from new thinking way in the human system
often hidden more effective creative solution, but we do not have found, because only the decision to focus on their own, while ignoring their own decisions on what impact other people. in the beer game itself The three roles within the capacity of their have clever way to eliminate large oscillations. But they can not do, because they do not know how to begin to create oscillations.
crisis has been repeated
Business community popular hero. We glorify and advancement of people who achieve tangible results. But if things went wrong, and we intuitively think that a certain someone messed up.
game in beer there is no such culprit, no one is blame. In our story of three characters, any one person's intentions are good: good customer service, maintaining a smooth flow in the system and to avoid losses. each have a role in their own rational speculation can occur What, and made in good faith, and decisive judgments. no one's intention is bad, but despite this, the crisis still exists in the system's structure.
nearly two decades, the Beer Game in the classroom and management training workshops was played several dry times. there are people on five continents played this game, the participation of people of all ages, nationality, culture and industry background; some participants heard before the production / distribution system, some people have It took a long time in this business. But every time you play this game, or place the same crisis. The first is a large number of out of stock, the system orders are increasing, inventory depletion, the amount of shortage is increasing. then finally achieve the order quantity, a large number of delivery, but the number of new orders received, began to sag. before the end of the experiment, almost all to participate in games, are sitting they can not reduce the huge inventory; inventory, there are several manufacturers per box, 8 boxes per week looking at wholesalers, 10 boxes of orders and do nothing.
if thousands of people from different backgrounds to participate in the game, but all produce similar results, which must be beyond reason more personal factors. For these reasons must be hidden inside the structure of the game itself.
is more worthy of attention is the game of beer production and marketing model structure, actually can lead to real production distribution system common crisis. For example, in 1985 personal computer memory chips and low-cost adequate supply, sales are down 18%, the U.S. industry suffered losses of 25 to 60%. But in late 1986, the sudden shortage, because of fear and over-subscription, leaving a shortage increased, the results the same chip prices 100-300%. similar needs sharp drop in violence from 1973 to 1975, the semiconductor industry. a substantial increase in orders, resulting in the entire industry out of stock and delivery time delay, the demand is Then fall, you need any product, we can immediately get. a few years, Siemens (Siemens), Saige Ni (Signetics) Nortel (Northern Telecom), Han Wei (Honeywell), and Shilinboge (Schlumberger ) and so all through the decline of the semiconductor manufacturing company to purchase and enter the industry.
in mid-1989, General Motors, Ford and Chrysler, just as the Wall Street Journal said, sales, dealer inventories continue to accumulate. those companies of idle factories, and high rates not seen for many years lay off workers. Inventory accelerator theory) needs of the commercial business cycle mm slightly higher, leading to excessive increase in inventories, and lead to poor sales and depression.
various service industries again and again that such fluctuations occur. such as real estate industry and the subsequent rush of the grand serious slow-moving, far too many such examples, but we repeat the same mistakes again and again, it is because people are too forgetful, or because a deeper layer of the , in the production of the true state distribution system is often the case than the beer game worse. the real world retailers will also be the three or four wholesalers order, until there is a delivery, and not to cancel the delivery of other order. the real world manufacturers often encounter in the game have appeared Existing capacity constraints, so that the whole distribution system, the panic even worse. or the manufacturer may increase productivity, because they believe that the current level of demand will continue, But this way, once the demand for fall, will find themselves in the plight of excess capacity.
games such as the production of beer distribution system, wave phenomena, revealing the first principles of systems thinking: the structure of behavior. < br> Structure
behavior is very different people even when they're in the same system being, also tend to produce similar results.
systems perspective tells us, to understand the important issues, our vision must be higher than just look at individual events, the individual or the individual personality of mistakes. We must better understand the impact of our individual actions and individual actions make them similar to the underlying structure. seventies shocked the world as the masterpiece limit> (The Limits to Growth) m front of the book Silk (Donella Meadows) said: . Peace br> and killing, victory and despair filled the people. human pace of life changed dramatically throughout, at first in order to increase the speed of movement, and then slowly decreasing. Some people ask: What is the reason of this activity, or, in the end it is the law according to what happens ?
Disagreement with the people close to him or write a detailed biography, talking about one of the important relationship between the characters, and then concluded that, because these things make the revolution happen, and these are the laws of history.
intelligent people refuse to believe this explanation. In fact l r revolution and Napoleon's generation, many individuals will bring together the results, this will bring them to the pooling can also be its demise.
Historians believe: l no matter what the time of war there is the great military leaders; no matter what a time when the country will have a great revolution. r intelligent people believe: l no matter what the time, when the great military leaders indeed there is a war; but that does not mean that general causes of the war is causing, or can be found in an individual's activities of factors leading to war. r the law, only a deeper understanding of hope. he called completely change the subject of observation, must be put aside kings, ministers, generals, and started studying to guide the public but very similar to those subtle elements. no one can in the final analysis in this area of human progress in understanding the depth of the laws of history; but apparently only efforts in this direction is possible that the laws of history. And now, with the study of human intelligence and wisdom of this method, less than many in the narrative historian with kings, ministers, generals hh such as the one in a million.