Had to say

 Mr Yam's article in the Forward, I had to add a comment, because the face of China's seven years of real estate prices rose sharply, the people at home people sulked, and Mr. Ren continued to express their views because (actually just told the truth) is Of course, as the public spokesman for the real estate group has been vocal opposition, anxious to sleep the skin, eat its meat. can be understood, it has always been characteristic of China, is obviously the result of central policy, but the people at home must be sent to the most vicious curse policies to be bound by the same citizens (a group of people that benefit), rather than condemning the policy given the Government and the Government are happy to look at various domestic interest groups blame each other, and reduce their own responsibility. We carefully lists the main reasons led to rising real estate prices, in the end to see who is responsible:
1: RMB excess distribution. This makes people's property is a great exploit, forcing people to buy a hedge against inflation, real estate and so are the policy leads to frustration behavior
2: Only for residential real estate development company to develop the policy. (real estate development company is a great benefit, so were the people curse, but this Who restrictive policies enacted? Of course, if the right real estate company with official collusion, bribery is to be scolded, but also sued the Criminal Code, but accused the benefit of this group have no reason too, do business is the moral? )
3: The Government's monopoly on land supply, as well as a variety of complex real estate development approval procedures, the steps do not have the power to provide the space rent-seeking? particularly funny is that years ago, people condemned the arbitrary levels of government grant of land, making the right space with the maximum rent-seeking, and finally move into the land, auction. may move did not solve the fear of official corruption linked to the problem, but skyrocketing land prices direct pull. Oh, I'm speechless, in China, this kinds of regimes, the single address an economic problem, would be to stop the corruption of officials in the land? course, can not start saying, you know! as to maintain the current real estate tax levy, as did the people what is the purpose? only after the introduction of will not bring prices down, to the same result in the plundering of the public the new, so many years, our economic policies are basically the result of this, and why. I know, you know, we know everything.
space is limited, do not want to more lists. but I must correct some of your misconceptions, based on my preliminary view, Mr. Ren understanding of many of his judgments on real estate prices means that housing, and the national requirements of the Home Ownership should be asking the Government to ensure, and to ensure that the national housing needs and reasonable room What room, it is a government thing, anyway, most of the people is certainly not get the officials, the central enterprises have to get the kind of room , although they may be as it is called.
had to say
Ren
want to make people rejoiced over the bumper year, the State Council issued again in 2011 before the new eight for consolidate and expand the regulation last year, results continued to effectively curb speculative investment and work hard, and gradually solve the housing problem of urban residents. But in addition to increased security, the text seemed to favor the gradual resolution could not find housing for urban residents the terms of the problem.
Maybe the government hopes can change in consumer attitudes and contain consumer demand and slow down the process of urbanization in China, in order to balance supply and demand, to guarantee to replace the market. However, thirty-five years of planned economy in China the failure of so long ago that a universal protection is also able to return back to become a history. China is no longer stick to the small-peasant economy era of self-sufficiency, long ceased to be satisfied with the status quo, there is no surplus at home The net of the times eat flowers. the people's growing material needs and from the Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the strengthening of government responsibility in the country into eight local government responsibility, if China is a federal state system, local and central than the existing distribution system, then the local government can still be relatively independent Government can still say effectively assume the responsibility to promote stable development of the market, and the current state system really want a government divided into two levels of government liability for it?
local governments the power to approve land targets? Yes formulate monetary policy power? have developed the power to tax it? the adjustment rate power? a bond issuance rights? controlled migration rights? the hands of some local governments do not even have control of steel, cement, building materials production, deployment ability, there is no independent ability to tax disposable, but also how to bear the responsibility to stabilize the market do?
people do not know this place is provincial or municipal government, is the first line or second and third tier cities, county governments may refer to ( There will be second into the security requirements of the town, which to the county a). Well, this so-called local government since there is no market control means, and to his official status and had to disguise, only to be forced to make use of administrative means fake one way to go.
local housing statistics in the fraud is a very easy thing to do, the average house price is not an accurate definition of the standard number, this is no sense of the virtual market, the number of naturally you can use a variety of ways to Jiaxi True singing. as with the external supply of affordable housing a large number of the average price of a small amount of 高档房 down; as with a lot of affordable housing supply will continue to enjoy the average price; such as high restricted Housing sales license, will reduce the average selling price; such as sales price with the developers to cut prices and ordered way; such as basic functions of the administrative measures will promote the healthy development of the market do?
Maybe we figure out that eight countries what is the definition of the market, but economics tells us that there is no price signal, not the certainly not the market. by the Chief of the distorted price signals that reflect the market will definitely not be a healthy market, not to be a growing market.
the hands of a government with a wide range of regulatory tools and economic instruments, yet it can not predict and control the inflation target market, leaving cities to take on unarmed People's Government of stability, control it not the responsibility of housing prices is a difficult, completely passing the buck, or a practice is irresponsible . If the Central Government has totally irresponsible to the point that China's citizens do trust the central government should be transferred to the local government body to do?
China has never had to determine the new year in the region Housing price control target system, the standards do not know what will be whether the housing affordability index can be used as a quantitative standard. so early in the years before the eastern region of immigrants in this fast-growing affordability index below 100 long, while the central and western regions are mostly between 120 to 140, much higher than the index of 100 of these areas can allow the house prices rising it? whether the eastern region and not only growth down what?
the economic development objectives and per capita disposable income growth rate as a measure of the basis, first of all to change the distribution of income in a state or central government to receive the standard, the existing revenue and the increase in the proportion of GDP, far higher than the proportion of income distribution and growth, of which the bulk is concentrated in the central rather than local, that led to the local government over the financial dependence on the land. If you do not change the financial system, that is, money is not the central revenue , the local government subsidy of the central government, developers can not earn to subsidize local governments, consumers can not dig to subsidize less economic?
at least the responsibility of central government tax system without changing the existing situation, will contain shifting the burden of rising house prices means there is no market control ability of local governments, forcing local government to use administrative means to control prices, will not allow a more stable and healthy development of the market, it will certainly not conducive to resolving the housing problem of urban residents.
Second, to increase housing security is a government responsibility, but who is the object of protection, has always been a nobody knows for sure, no one is willing to not spend the capital to enjoy the government subsidy of public resources, and to which to send a Property Large fiscal revenue. Thus the strict standards of access and exit mechanism is for the protection of the public policy of disappointment and doubt the key. to increase public rental demand will help stabilize markets, but not completely reverse the imbalance between supply and demand relationship. The lease did not participate in the competitive sales price, the price naturally has nothing to do with the curb, but the selling price controls will affect the rental price is.
Third, improve the tax aspects of transactions, is indeed restricted in many countries 短炒speculation of a practice. However, the Korean experience shows that such auxiliary means can not solve the fundamental supply and demand in the market, but second-hand housing weakened ability to regulate complement attack. Fortunately, China is a market dominated by 一手房countries, or transferability of such a transaction tax is inevitable and can only raise the price of the transaction.
Chinese history has repeatedly tried to second-hand housing transactions to limit tax increases in second-hand housing transaction prices , and each time the empirical results are continuously transferred by way of transaction taxes and push up prices. but not established a comprehensive national network of individual housing information system of local government, how could a strict tax rates?
一手房 trading in Shanghai to encourage decoration, expressly provides for the price of housing transactions and the trading price of refined decoration separate deal signed two contracts, but only contract traded on the housing business tax and deed tax. so second-hand housing whether the price of the transaction and the renovation of housing transactions can be divided into two sections deal? If 一手房 can be separated, why not allow second-hand housing transactions are separate from it? dating now become a major public housing transfer and the transfer of two contracts decoration , the transaction may not be the result of changes due to the tax.
application technology as a real estate appraisal is a necessary condition taxed countries in common, including trading links, and inheritance of property transfer and holding areas gift links. But China never paid much attention to the history of the role of assessment, in addition to listing a small amount of displacement, related party transactions, it almost does not establish that a system across the country registered a total of qualified evaluators, three to five people , to 70 cities, 660 cities in general, 2,600 county-level cities, nearly 190 million square meters of housing to establish a sound evaluation system takes about 150 years. Meanwhile, the Chinese history and chaotic distribution system land and property rights system before and after the reform adds to the difference in the change process, which conducted the assessment of regional equity issues can not be solved, and trying to deal the rest of the short-term combination of tax collection is an almost impossible.
may ulterior motives, the establishment of evaluation system is more important to serve the property to be held by restructuring the tax aspects of it.
Fourth, housing credit is supposed to be the result of fair market competition, However, the difference between credit enhancement and the service of political goals, so the identification of the second set of housing and credit policy has become a political tool. nominally against the real estate investment and speculative behavior, the actual demand is to limit the type of improvement. China 50-year history of the welfare distribution, and more than 75% of the privatization of urban housing have told the market to improve the rate of the dominant type of demand, while policies restricting investment in a large number of malicious slander needs to improve the model, which gradually resolved with the town residents of the housing problems of the goals had a strong conflict.
not know that China's transfer of the contract in order to avoid taxes has long appeared to children of parents and children to their parents purchase behavior, many individuals have three sets of name housing, property rights to a living are divided into three generations. it is necessary to prevent the death or remarriage, with the older generation, but also prevent the next generation of divorce and property transfer, it will inevitably retain their own property, how is it fair ?
no doubt that changes in credit conditions will greatly influence the market's purchasing power and transaction levels. If you press the authorization document, local governments can apply to the bank a higher down payment and interest rates, the banks made a national crisis, you had better fortune but it may mean something.
the local government to attract foreign investors, will it not break the standard mortgage investors turn away from it? China Banking Regulatory Commission this year, holding the big stick of the core capital adequacy ratio, the central bank holding the reserve ratio difference big stick, bank credit was revised scale differential management approach in the struggle for power in the two institutions greatly affected. coupled with the housing credit squeeze, perhaps more than anyone else sad day, but to the underground financing and credit , pawnshops, mortgage can be ample opportunities created. do not know the end result is very confusing bank or capital markets mixed. at least the expansion of bank financing will continue, otherwise it can not develop and survive.
five supply and demand conditions is the equilibrium price, the source of land supply is expected to restrict the supply of housing. So the supply of land price increase is expected to stabilize the premise, but the people from eight countries seem to see hope. Strict management of housing land supply, expand the supply is not a signal to increase the effective land supply over does not mean that the increase in total amount of land, but that this effective protection is to meet 70% of the housing, housing and small shed to change condominiums as a precondition . Therefore special emphasis in the new land use plan and land for affordable housing, and separate receiving them. But the affordable housing delivery and the market has little real estate transaction, especially the protection of the public rent-based, it does not reflect the price of transactions changes in house prices has little to do with the curb. If the land is the total zero-sum game, then when the safeguard of housing land as the cities and the increasing number and proportion, then the commodity housing can be divided into shares and the number will only The smaller the less, rather than an increase.
in principle, the total supply of land for housing products is lower than the average actual supply of the previous two years, it means that supply this year will be significantly lower than last year, but not to increase supply reduce the supply, because double-digit growth in 2009 was negative, although the total for 2010 to grow by 30%, but the average is only 2 years after the increase, not decrease. If the total amount of land not increase, then how is given a clear market expectations do?
since 2005, annual sales volume to the area beyond the completion of the number and length of from 1:1 to 1.73:1 last year. This shows that sales are far greater than the completion of the low supply the demand situation has not improved, but worsened. So why not increase the supply of land it? not increase the supply of land and how to improve the supply and demand do?
eighteen million acres of the red line is the constraint it? In fact, every year the total amount of farmland occupied land for real estate development accounted for only about 5% pure commercial residential about only about 1.5%. a lot of residential land use is not occupied by the goods. Last year, 2.7 trillion yuan of land transfer revenue from the development of purchased the land just less than 1 trillion yuan, 1.7 trillion yuan to sell the other land is not commercial. and developers to buy land in only 70% of residential land, which also includes about 20m30% of the security room, pure the proportion of commodity housing is even lower. So eighteen million acres of land prices and the red line has nothing to do, but only with the total amount of farmland occupied the land allocated to the proportion of housing-related goods, but the developers have for the eighteen million acres of red line back many years to bear the blame.
eighteen million mu of China's red line is really the threat? front of the field survey, the total amount of farmland is not reduced but increased, and more than 19 million mu, as water, construction of farm land into a farm for many, while the number of management methods can not solve the food security problems.
60 early, 6 billion people, only about half of the population now, while farmland is than it is now a lot more. but why do we have enough to eat it? available in only about 18 million mu 13m14 million hectares for food production, the other 4m5 mu does not produce food, why food can eat it more than 1.3 billion ? This is food prices, productivity, land system a series of problems, but is not directly related to urban residential land use issues.
residential building must be occupied by agricultural land? Beijing, Beijing, agricultural output accounted for only GDP 1% of the total, while agricultural subsidies in Beijing is much larger than the creation of GDP, is already proved that the asymmetry of input and output. And Beijing's non-agricultural land can be shallow mountain city construction land Switzerland almost no flat land, the house can not be built up in the mountains? Swiss agriculture can not exist? the total population of Beijing and Shanghai almost the same, but the land more nearly 1 million square kilometers, it really is a small lot? < br> from any comparison with developed countries are unable to find no land to build a house in the case, open the monopoly of land management and quantitative restrictions on the purchase of more than perhaps even more important to inhibit consumption.
root may to the State Department is in the last down to the local government market with the largest gains access to land greedy. , price competition > but and all the risk onto the developer of the market that the government wanted to obtain a point not to go without, leaving the only producer of the Road wealth high land prices and low prices in a sale, who can get this down artificially limit the access to housing assets equal to the interest in a redistribution of wealth. Because the price of secondary housing transactions will no doubt with the surrounding non- limit housing prices leveled to the outbreak of a windfall. This price is only for the first time to solve the stable market transaction price, but not for price and value symmetry, or the nominal price and actual prices artificially separated. It is a blessing market behavior, it is the laws of economics or a blessing that this is not to create a healthy market economy, but to destroy the free exchange market, the basis of equivalent exchange. to create a false market in housing to encourage and stimulate investment and speculation ; in the protection and creation of speculation and risk-free investment behavior.
1995 years of After such a violation is indeed legally binding document to the way again with the State Council, reiterated and penalties, are State Department documents approved by the NPC law more than the force of law? Do fifteen years to comply with the law and no person resolved to give up the laws against return to the State Department relies on non-legal rules to solve you?
doubt this is the State Council document on the National People's Congress approved a mockery of the law, the State Department can not modify any provision of the law and are violation of the law. I do not know what is the meaning of State Department documents, but I know not to deal with the land developer or buy businesses or individuals, but those who should manage land according to the law and did not manage land according to government agencies and law enforcement units. If this happens in a strict rule of law, the State Council's file does not become a joke and illegal? Hath file with the State Department to reaffirm the truth by law? State actually do not know who more than anyone else big? < br> Six, the purchase of a rational consumption? Yes, consumer demand has led to unreasonable prices too high? luxury high prices are due to irrational consumer demand led to price high? limit behavior of luxury goods consumption lead to lower prices of luxury goods do?
market has always been to regulate and guide the price consumer demand, low price is increased consumption, high prices are reducing consumption. This is the economics of the common sense, but it appears that the Government of China do everything possible with a variety of administrative measures to reduce housing prices, but also not allowed to increase in price reduces consumer demand for the practice of counter-laws of common sense, this not is not to understand? unless the government just want to prove even adopted a series of strict control measures, but the market still can not change the situation of serious shortage. but serious shortage in the supply do not increase it? do not increase supply prices do not rise up?
expanding the purchase of whether the city ultimately to spread to all of the city? if China wants to stop housing prices and urbanization process? whether to borrow the name of housing limited the flow of non-household population? Are house prices than the demand for residential housing to meet the more important to improve ? than the protection of citizens the power of movement is more important? social insurance contributions that the country can not flow it? a local tax certificate is not because the household can not enjoy the protection of low-cost housing, etc.? Why and security in the purchase of only the favor of the Government to take rather than policy differences between the interests of consumers do?
consumer demand is a reasonable rent to buy, from the old to the new, small to large exchange multiple delivery times, but the restriction of the second set of prohibitions and already cut the interest rate difference between the reasonable requirements of the path, to allow people the choice of only one step in the right place, no longer possible from the old to the new, small to large multiple purchases and consumption. but had to buy new buy big, or else I wonder how much it costs to pay more, do not even know whether the restrictions are not a replacement power. had as income growth may be changed every two to three years after the housing, but within five years tax provisions are people trading had scared hh
seen is precisely the irrational consumption caused by the regulation of the State Council document; exactly is changing every year of administrative measures; just is not stable market expectations of credit and tax policy, citizens will have to do not know doing time in advance, ahead of the consumer to make a timely choice, because of policy changes in order to avoid greater losses and burdens. The restriction not only can not lead a reasonable consumer, it will be considered a fraud, a species would have to pay the costs will be several major threat, the more limited the more you buy, the more limited set of over-consumption to buy more large, lead had a greater consumer demand is unreasonable.
if the city has different cycles announced the purchase of progressive order, bound to not meet the conditions of the family had to buy those that have not yet announced the purchase of a first cities to seize a location. This is precisely what part of the city last year that led to the purchase of capital flows, and this year is more cities had to the purchase of the results. is it still expanding with the purchase of this that allow these funds to the purchase of more non-urban mobility you?
prices which do not have the funds to manage Liquidity is a reason to give up the remainder of price regulation of the number of management will often be short term and long-term deterioration of the results. even a few months may be short-short to short-lived, or simply did not valid.
seven , expansion of the interviews accountability precisely that weaken the government's ability to govern. do not believe the local government capacity and the implementation of central directives Unfortunately, the evolution and expansion of executive power to the bank's policy, tax policy execution, the implementation of discipline management power, individual housing information system execution, so what does the central government is fully confident that the local government without accountability do interviews? to ask if a central government and local government interests with those of the policy, local The Government will use interviews and accountable manner to restrain it? to ask if a more favorable local government policies, local governments will not try to carry you hh
seems the central government responsibilities to local governments when , already know that this is an almost impossible goal, or a local government will be discounted by the passive policy. perhaps with the local government conflict of interest policy, in addition to interviews and ask the central government than has been responsible for the management of no other way to get out.
only use the official positions of their only picked this one weapon. Is this not a tragedy on the ability to govern.
year ; unsuccessful will pay the price responsible only to execute and complete? Do not accountable to the local government to refuse to work for the livelihood of the people do?
the smooth flow of the national decree opened from a bad head, interviews with the implementation of accountability has become the only means of protection decree , then it must be a problem with this policy or the state system do not change die.
Chinese history, there had been numerous votes on the veto power under, such as family planning, energy conservation and so on. Today, about On house prices and accountability will be virtually turned into the assessment of local officials a one-vote veto. but huge in China, different levels of economic development around the huge, huge differences in wealth and housing conditions, the average level of prices a huge difference, but also how to use a standard to determine the fate of local officials do?
eight, who controls the media tools? Who controls the media? Can not people have the ability to manufacture and distribute false information? and from the national conditions of rational consumption on the premise that people should be aware of conditions, but was controlled by mass media and the media and discussed the proper notice to the national publicity or news over the real situation and information? such as China's housing situation, the status of land China's income status, China's fiscal income status, status of China's fiscal expenditure, China's monetary policy, liquidity, etc. associated with the housing situation. China's tax revenue accounts for the proportion of house prices, land prices account for the proportion of ability of different regions can be paid more. If there is no basis to make people understand the situation, how come the starting point? at least a variety of questions from users in the vast majority of people can understand or can not be found simply can not understand the conditions many of the basic situation, even the specialized research institutions is very difficult to get the necessary data, how to understand what conditions? Chongqing and Shanghai from property taxes to spread the pilot announced that a formal trial the pilot spent about a year's time, the middle was the media that time imposed on many occasions, which can be considered manufacturing, spreading false information? then the market's forecast there be false and wrong information on you?